Torino
vs
Lecce
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Torino 1–0 Lecce
The model makes it 44% Torino, 28% draw, 28% Lecce — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Torino 1.51, Lecce 1.09.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Torino's rating is built from 46 Serie A matches and Lecce's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 831 matches.
Key facts
- Torino are 7th on 13 points from 8 games; Lecce are 12th on 9 points from 7 games — Serie A.
- Torino are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Monza.
- Lecce have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Udinese.
- Last 6 meetings: Torino 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended Torino 1–0 Lecce.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Torino vs Lecce
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Torino at 44% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Torino vs Lecce
Torino
Serie A
- W3-2Monza23 October 2026
- W3-0away to Parma19 October 2026
- W2-1Udinese12 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bologna19 September 2026
- L0-2AS Roma14 September 2026
Lecce
Serie A
- W3-0away to Udinese18 October 2026
- L1-2Bologna11 October 2026
- L0-3away to AC Milan20 September 2026
- W3-2Monza13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cagliari7 September 2026
What these results say
- Torino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Torino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lecce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lecce had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Lecce | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Torino vs Lecce
- 1 February 2026Torino 1–0 LecceSerie A
- 30 November 2025Lecce 2–1 TorinoSerie A
- 18 May 2025Lecce 1–0 TorinoSerie A
- 15 September 2024Torino 0–0 LecceSerie A
- 16 February 2024Torino 2–0 LecceSerie A
- 28 October 2023Lecce 0–1 TorinoSerie A
Leading scorers: Torino and Lecce
Torino
GoalsAssists
- C. Adams30
Lecce
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Torino carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.74 for Lecce. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Torino and 1.09 for Lecce. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Torino rate 1.06 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lecce rate 0.81 and 1.02.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Torino a 0.1% chance of the title and Lecce 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Torino the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Torino against 1.09 for Lecce. Torino's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.02 for Lecce.
How the model reaches 44% for Torino to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Torino to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Torino's ratings change nothing and Lecce's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage39%+3
- Torino's ratings39%±0
- Lecce's ratings44%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Torino at home · Lecce away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
TorinoLecce
Torino are 7th after 8 Serie A matches (between 7th and 16th so far); Lecce are 12th after 7 (between 2nd and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Torino 8, Lecce 7.
Torino score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Lecce have let in 4 there.
Lecce score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Torino have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Torino
- at Napoli21 Nov · Serie Awin 21%
- vs Lazio29 Nov · Serie Awin 29%
- at Genoa6 Dec · Serie Awin 40%
Lecce
- at Lazio21 Nov · Serie Awin 20%
- vs Atalanta29 Nov · Serie Awin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.