Como
vs
Cagliari
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Como 1–0 Cagliari
The model makes it 54% Como, 28% draw, 18% Cagliari — fair odds of 1.85, 3.57 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Como 1.54, Cagliari 0.64.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Como are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Como's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Cagliari's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.
Key facts
- Como are 5th on 23 points from 11 games; Cagliari are 9th on 16 points from 11 games — Serie A.
- Como have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Inter.
- Cagliari have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Frosinone.
- Last 6 meetings: Como 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Cagliari 1–2 Como.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Como vs Cagliari
Has the model earned this number?
Como at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Como vs Cagliari
Como
Serie A
- L0-2away to Inter8 November 2026
- W1-0Venezia1 November 2026
- W3-1away to Torino27 October 2026
- W2-0Sassuolo24 October 2026
- W3-1away to Fiorentina18 October 2026
Cagliari
Serie A
- W1-0Frosinone7 November 2026
- L1-2away to Lazio1 November 2026
- L2-4away to AS Roma27 October 2026
- L0-2Bologna24 October 2026
- L0-4away to Monza19 October 2026
What these results say
- Como won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Como scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cagliari failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cagliari conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Como | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 23 |
| 9 | Cagliari | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Como
Chance to finish in the top four · 49% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Como vs Cagliari
- 7 March 2026Cagliari 1–2 ComoSerie A
- 8 November 2025Como 0–0 CagliariSerie A
- 10 May 2025Como 3–1 CagliariSerie A
- 26 August 2024Cagliari 1–1 ComoSerie A
- 25 July 2024Cagliari 1–3 ComoFriendlies Clubs
- 2 August 2023Cagliari 2–1 ComoFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Como and Cagliari
Como
GoalsAssists
- T. Douvikas50
Cagliari
GoalsAssists
- D. Maldini50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Como a 2.5% chance of the title and Cagliari 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Como v Cagliari has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 58% / 27% / 15% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 54% / 28% / 18%: the biggest move is Como's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Como win54%▼ −4
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Cagliari win18%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Como the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Como against 0.64 for Cagliari. Como's attack/defence rating is 1.17/0.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/0.93 for Cagliari.
How the model reaches 54% for Como to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Como to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Como's ratings add 9 points and Cagliari's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level36%−2
- Como's ratings45%+9
- Cagliari's ratings54%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Como at home · Cagliari away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
ComoCagliari
Como are 5th after 11 Serie A matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Cagliari are 9th after 11 (between 3rd and 13th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Como 11, Cagliari 11.
Como score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Cagliari have let in 3 there.
Cagliari score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Como have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Como
- vs AEK Athens FC24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 72%
- vs Juventus29 Nov · Serie Awin 39%
- at Monza6 Dec · Serie Awin 57%
- at Real Betis9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 33%
- vs Bologna13 Dec · Serie Awin 48%
Cagliari
- vs AC Milan29 Nov · Serie Awin 22%
- at Fiorentina6 Dec · Serie Awin 26%
- vs Venezia13 Dec · Serie Awin 42%
- at Torino20 Dec · Serie Awin 31%
- vs Genoa3 Jan · Serie Awin 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.