Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Raith Rovers vs Partick Championship prediction

Kirkcaldy

Our model says: Raith Rovers 1–0 Partick

The model makes it 38% Raith Rovers, 30% draw, 32% Partick — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Raith Rovers 1.22, Partick 1.05.

Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Raith Rovers's rating is built from 50 Scottish Championship matches and Partick's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Raith Rovers are 2nd on 25 points from 14 games; Partick are top on 28 points from 14 games — Championship.
  • Raith Rovers have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Dunfermline.
  • Partick have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Queen's Park.
  • Last 6 meetings: Partick 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended Partick 0–0 Raith Rovers.

More Scottish Championship predictions

All Scottish Championship predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Raith Rovers vs Partick

47%
Both teams to score
40%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Raith Rovers win Draw Partick win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 0–011%
  4. 0–110%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 2–08%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Raith Rovers first; the other scorelines share the remaining 30%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Raith Rovers at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Raith Rovers vs Partick

Raith Rovers

Championship

  • D0-0Dunfermline6 November 2026
  • W4-0away to Arbroath31 October 2026
  • L0-2Inverness CT24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Stenhousemuir17 October 2026
  • W2-0Queen's Park10 October 2026

Partick

Championship

  • W1-0away to Queen's Park7 November 2026
  • L2-3Morton31 October 2026
  • W3-0Stenhousemuir24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Dunfermline20 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Ayr Utd16 October 2026

What these results say

  • 4 of these 5 matches for Raith Rovers had two goals or fewer.
  • Partick scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Raith Rovers14743209+1125
1Partick14842187+1128

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Raith Rovers

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 17% today

Win 23%
Draw 14%
Defeat 11%

Partick

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 45% today

Win 54%
Draw 46%
Defeat 38%

From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Raith Rovers vs Partick

  • 19 September 2026Partick 0–0 Raith RoversChampionship
  • 24 March 2026Raith Rovers 0–2 PartickChampionship
  • 20 December 2025Partick 0–0 Raith RoversChampionship
  • 25 October 2025Raith Rovers 2–0 PartickChampionship
  • 30 August 2025Partick 3–2 Raith RoversChampionship
  • 21 March 2025Partick 0–0 Raith RoversChampionship

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Partick (first, with Raith Rovers second), while our numbers lean to Raith Rovers. Raith Rovers rate 0.49 in attack and 1.82 in defence, Partick 0.48 and 1.53 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Raith Rovers a 17.4% chance of the title and Partick 45.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Raith Rovers v Partick has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 38% / 30% / 32%: the biggest move is Raith Rovers's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Raith Rovers win38%▼ −2
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Partick win32%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Raith Rovers Partick
0.49 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.48
1.82 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.53
1.22 Model expected goals (this match) 1.05

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Raith Rovers the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Raith Rovers against 1.05 for Partick. Raith Rovers's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.53 for Partick.

Raith Rovers carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.28 for Partick. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 38% for Raith Rovers to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Raith Rovers to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Raith Rovers's ratings take away 1 point and Partick's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Raith Rovers's ratings41%−1
  5. Partick's ratings38%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Raith RoversPartick
14Matches14
7W 4D 3LRecord8W 4D 2L
20 1.4 per gameGoals scored18 1.3 per game
9 0.6 per gameGoals conceded7 0.5 per game
7 of 14Clean sheets9 of 14
5 of 14Failed to score3 of 14
3 of 3Penalties scored1 of 1
26 1.9 per gameYellow cards28 2.0 per game

Raith Rovers at home · Partick away

7Played7
3W 2D 2LRecord4W 2D 1L
9–5Goals for – against7–4
4 of 7Clean sheets3 of 7

League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Championship matches this season: Raith Rovers 14, Partick 14.

Raith Rovers scored 733232
Partick conceded 103122

Raith Rovers score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Partick have let in 1 there.

Partick scored 543211
Raith Rovers conceded 121302

Partick score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Raith Rovers have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Raith Rovers

  • at Livingston4 Dec · Championshipwin 28%
  • vs Morton12 Dec · Championshipwin 63%
  • at Queen's Park18 Dec · Championshipwin 48%
  • at Dunfermline26 Dec · Championshipwin 26%

Partick

  • vs Dunfermline5 Dec · Championshipwin 43%
  • at Arbroath11 Dec · Championshipwin 48%
  • vs Ayr Utd19 Dec · Championshipwin 62%
  • vs Queen's Park26 Dec · Championshipwin 66%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.