Ayr Utd
vs
Dunfermline
Championship prediction
Our model says: Ayr Utd 0–1 Dunfermline
The model makes it 27% Ayr Utd, 29% draw, 44% Dunfermline — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Ayr Utd 1.04, Dunfermline 1.66.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ayr Utd are 8th on 8 points from 8 games; Dunfermline are 5th on 12 points from 7 games — Championship.
- Ayr Utd have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Stenhousemuir.
- Dunfermline are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-0 win away to Morton.
- Last 6 meetings: Ayr Utd 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Dunfermline 1–1 Ayr Utd.
All Scottish Championship predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dunfermline at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline
Ayr Utd
- L0-1Stenhousemuir25 September 2026
- W2-0away to Queen's Park18 September 2026
- L1-3Inverness CT12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Partick5 September 2026
- D1-1Morton29 August 2026
Dunfermline
- W1-0away to Morton19 September 2026
- W2-0Queen's Park12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arbroath5 September 2026
- W1-0Raith Rovers28 August 2026
- L0-2away to Livingston22 August 2026
What these results say
- Ayr Utd failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ayr Utd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ayr Utd had two goals or fewer.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Dunfermline had two goals or fewer.
- Dunfermline scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Ayr Utd | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline
- 8 August 2026Dunfermline 1–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 7 April 2026Ayr Utd 0–3 DunfermlineChampionship
- 20 December 2025Dunfermline 2–3 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 31 October 2025Ayr Utd 0–1 DunfermlineChampionship
- 23 September 2025Dunfermline 0–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 29 March 2025Ayr Utd 3–0 DunfermlineChampionship
The two sides
Ayr Utd carry a model rating of 5.9 against 6.28 for Dunfermline. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.04 goals for Ayr Utd and 1.66 for Dunfermline. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ayr Utd rate 0.38 in attack and 2.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dunfermline rate 0.54 and 1.68.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ayr Utd a 0% chance of the title and Dunfermline 11.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dunfermline the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Ayr Utd against 1.66 for Dunfermline. Ayr Utd's attack/defence rating is 0.38/2.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.68 for Dunfermline.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ayr Utd at home · Dunfermline away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Ayr Utd 8, Dunfermline 7.
Ayr Utd score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Dunfermline have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Ayr Utd
- vs Partick16 Oct · Championshipwin 27%
- at Morton24 Oct · Championshipwin 36%
- vs Queen's Park31 Oct · Championshipwin 45%
- at Arbroath7 Nov · Championshipwin 18%
Dunfermline
- vs Livingston17 Oct · Championshipwin 45%
- vs Partick20 Oct · Championshipwin 41%
- at Queen's Park24 Oct · Championshipwin 48%
- at Stenhousemuir27 Oct · Championshipwin 27%
- vs Inverness CT31 Oct · Championshipwin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.