Dunfermline
vs
Morton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Dunfermline 2–0 Morton
The model makes it 63% Dunfermline, 22% draw, 15% Morton — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Dunfermline 2.30, Morton 0.89.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Dunfermline are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Dunfermline's rating is built from 50 Scottish Championship matches and Morton's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Dunfermline are 3rd on 25 points from 14 games; Morton are 9th on 13 points from 13 games — Championship.
- Dunfermline are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Raith Rovers.
- Morton are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-3 win at home to Stenhousemuir.
- Last 6 meetings: Dunfermline 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended Morton 0–1 Dunfermline.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dunfermline vs Morton
Has the model earned this number?
Dunfermline at 63%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dunfermline vs Morton
Dunfermline
Championship
- D0-0away to Raith Rovers6 November 2026
- W5-1Inverness CT31 October 2026
- W1-0away to Stenhousemuir27 October 2026
- W1-0away to Queen's Park24 October 2026
- D1-1Partick20 October 2026
Morton
Championship
- W4-3Stenhousemuir7 November 2026
- W3-2away to Partick31 October 2026
- W2-0Queen's Park17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Arbroath10 October 2026
- L1-2Raith Rovers3 October 2026
What these results say
- Dunfermline went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Dunfermline scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dunfermline had two goals or fewer.
- Morton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Morton won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Morton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Scotland Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dunfermline | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 25 |
| 9 | Morton | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dunfermline
Chance to finish in the top four · 83% today
Morton
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 41% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Dunfermline vs Morton
- 19 September 2026Morton 0–1 DunfermlineChampionship
- 4 April 2026Dunfermline 3–1 MortonChampionship
- 17 February 2026Morton 2–0 DunfermlineChampionship
- 22 November 2025Dunfermline 1–0 MortonChampionship
- 2 August 2025Morton 0–0 DunfermlineChampionship
- 2 May 2025Morton 2–0 DunfermlineChampionship
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dunfermline a 20.9% chance of the title and Morton 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dunfermline the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Dunfermline against 0.89 for Morton. Dunfermline's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/3.08 for Morton.
How the model reaches 63% for Dunfermline to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dunfermline to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Dunfermline's ratings add 7 points and Morton's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 63%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Dunfermline's ratings51%+7
- Morton's ratings63%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Dunfermline at home · Morton away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Dunfermline 14, Morton 13.
Dunfermline score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Morton have let in 3 there.
Morton score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Dunfermline have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dunfermline
- vs Arbroath1 Dec · Championshipwin 61%
- at Partick5 Dec · Championshipwin 26%
- vs Stenhousemuir12 Dec · Championshipwin 54%
- at Livingston19 Dec · Championshipwin 29%
- vs Raith Rovers26 Dec · Championshipwin 44%
Morton
- vs Ayr Utd1 Dec · Championshipwin 47%
- vs Inverness CT5 Dec · Championshipwin 37%
- at Raith Rovers12 Dec · Championshipwin 16%
- vs Arbroath19 Dec · Championshipwin 48%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.