Round of 64 · 28 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Queen of the South vs Dunfermline FA Cup prediction

Palmerston Park, Dumfries

Our model says: Queen of the South 0–1 Dunfermline

The model makes it 33% Queen of the South, 30% draw, 37% Dunfermline — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Queen of the South 1.12, Dunfermline 1.21.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

Edge to Dunfermline: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Queen of the South's rating is built from 2 Scottish Championship matches and Dunfermline's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Dunfermline are unbeaten in their last 5 Championship games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Raith Rovers.
  • Last 6 meetings: Dunfermline 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 December 2025, ended Queen of the South 4–3 Dunfermline.

Chance to go through

FA Cup Round of 64 — a single match: the winner goes through.

  • Queen of the South33%
  • Level after ninety minutes29%
  • Dunfermline38%

The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.

Other predictions for 28 Nov

All Scottish Cup predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Queen of the South vs Dunfermline

48%
Both teams to score
41%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Queen of the South win Draw Dunfermline win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 0–111%
  3. 0–010%
  4. 1–010%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 2–17%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read Queen of the South first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Dunfermline at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Queen of the South vs Dunfermline

Queen of the South

No earlier matches on record this season.

Dunfermline

Championship

  • D0-0away to Raith Rovers6 November 2026
  • W5-1Inverness CT31 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Stenhousemuir27 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Queen's Park24 October 2026
  • D1-1Partick20 October 2026

What these results say

  • Dunfermline went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Dunfermline scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Dunfermline had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Queen of the South vs Dunfermline

  • 16 December 2025Queen of the South 4–3 DunfermlineChallenge Cup
  • 29 November 2025Dunfermline 2–1 Queen of the SouthFA Cup
  • 15 April 2023Dunfermline 5–0 Queen of the SouthLeague One
  • 25 February 2023Queen of the South 0–2 DunfermlineLeague One
  • 3 December 2022Dunfermline 1–1 Queen of the SouthLeague One
  • 3 September 2022Queen of the South 0–2 DunfermlineLeague One
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Queen of the South Dunfermline
0.44 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.46
2.19 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.56
1.12 Model expected goals (this match) 1.21

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Dunfermline the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Queen of the South against 1.21 for Dunfermline. Queen of the South's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.56 for Dunfermline.

How the model reaches 37% for Dunfermline to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dunfermline to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Queen of the South's ratings add 5 points and Dunfermline's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Both sides at this match's level28%−1
  4. Queen of the South's ratings33%+5
  5. Dunfermline's ratings37%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Queen of the South

No further matches on our board yet.

Dunfermline

  • vs Arbroath1 Dec · Championshipwin 61%
  • at Partick5 Dec · Championshipwin 27%
  • vs Stenhousemuir12 Dec · Championshipwin 53%
  • at Livingston19 Dec · Championshipwin 28%
  • vs Raith Rovers26 Dec · Championshipwin 47%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.