Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir Championship prediction

Gayfield Park, Arbroath

Our model says: Arbroath 2–1 Stenhousemuir

The model makes it 36% Arbroath, 28% draw, 36% Stenhousemuir — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Arbroath 1.39, Stenhousemuir 1.38.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: Arbroath and Stenhousemuir are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Arbroath's rating is built from 50 Scottish Championship matches and Stenhousemuir's from 18, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Arbroath are 8th on 14 points from 14 games; Stenhousemuir are 4th on 23 points from 14 games — Championship.
  • Arbroath have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Ayr Utd.
  • Stenhousemuir have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to Morton.
  • Last 6 meetings: Stenhousemuir 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended Stenhousemuir 1–0 Arbroath.

More Scottish Championship predictions

All Scottish Championship predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir

57%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Arbroath win Draw Stenhousemuir win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 2–18%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 1–08%
  5. 0–18%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 2–06%

Scores read Arbroath first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Arbroath at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir

Arbroath

Championship

  • W4-1Ayr Utd7 November 2026
  • L0-4Raith Rovers31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Livingston24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Inverness CT17 October 2026
  • L1-2Morton10 October 2026

Stenhousemuir

Championship

  • L3-4away to Morton7 November 2026
  • L0-3Livingston30 October 2026
  • L0-1Dunfermline27 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Partick24 October 2026
  • D1-1Raith Rovers17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Arbroath conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Arbroath failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Stenhousemuir did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Stenhousemuir conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Arbroath144281123-1214
4Stenhousemuir147251616023

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Arbroath

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 42% today

Win 36%
Draw 43%
Defeat 48%

Stenhousemuir

Chance to finish in the top four · 35% today

Win 42%
Draw 32%
Defeat 29%

From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir

  • 19 September 2026Stenhousemuir 1–0 ArbroathChampionship
  • 12 April 2025Arbroath 4–0 StenhousemuirLeague One
  • 22 February 2025Stenhousemuir 2–0 ArbroathLeague One
  • 2 November 2024Arbroath 1–0 StenhousemuirLeague One
  • 3 August 2024Stenhousemuir 2–1 ArbroathLeague One
  • 9 March 2019Arbroath 0–2 StenhousemuirLeague One

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Stenhousemuir (fourth, with Arbroath eighth), while our numbers lean to Arbroath. Arbroath rate 0.37 in attack and 2.61 in defence, Stenhousemuir 0.44 and 2.31 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arbroath a 0% chance of the title and Stenhousemuir 2.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Arbroath v Stenhousemuir has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 31% / 30% / 39% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 36% / 28% / 36%: the biggest move is Arbroath's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Arbroath win36%▲ +5
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Stenhousemuir win36%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Arbroath Stenhousemuir
0.37 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.44
2.61 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.31
1.39 Model expected goals (this match) 1.38

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Arbroath the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Arbroath against 1.38 for Stenhousemuir. Arbroath's attack/defence rating is 0.37/2.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/2.31 for Stenhousemuir.

Arbroath carry a model rating of 5.87 against 6.02 for Stenhousemuir. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 36% for Arbroath to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Arbroath to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Arbroath's ratings take away 4 points and Stenhousemuir's ratings take away 4 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Arbroath's ratings40%−4
  4. Stenhousemuir's ratings36%−4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

ArbroathStenhousemuir
14Matches14
4W 2D 8LRecord7W 2D 5L
11 0.8 per gameGoals scored16 1.1 per game
23 1.6 per gameGoals conceded16 1.1 per game
2 of 14Clean sheets6 of 14
8 of 14Failed to score4 of 14
1 of 1Penalties scored–
21 1.5 per gameYellow cards28 2.0 per game
4Red cards0

Arbroath at home · Stenhousemuir away

7Played7
3W 2D 2LRecord3W 1D 3L
9–9Goals for – against8–10
2 of 7Clean sheets3 of 7

League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Championship matches this season: Arbroath 14, Stenhousemuir 14.

Arbroath scored 131413
Stenhousemuir conceded 342502

Arbroath score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Stenhousemuir have let in 5 there.

Stenhousemuir scored 152503
Arbroath conceded 625134

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Arbroath

  • at Dunfermline1 Dec · Championshipwin 15%
  • at Queen's Park5 Dec · Championshipwin 32%
  • vs Partick11 Dec · Championshipwin 24%
  • at Morton19 Dec · Championshipwin 27%
  • vs Inverness CT23 Dec · Championshipwin 34%

Stenhousemuir

  • vs Ayr Utd5 Dec · Championshipwin 51%
  • at Dunfermline12 Dec · Championshipwin 20%
  • vs Inverness CT19 Dec · Championshipwin 42%
  • at Livingston26 Dec · Championshipwin 21%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.