Dunfermline
vs
Livingston
Championship prediction
Our model says: Dunfermline 1–0 Livingston
The model makes it 45% Dunfermline, 28% draw, 27% Livingston — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Dunfermline 1.72, Livingston 1.09.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Dunfermline are 5th on 12 points from 7 games; Livingston are 3rd on 13 points from 8 games — Championship.
- Dunfermline are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-0 win away to Morton.
- Livingston are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-0 win away to Raith Rovers.
- Last 6 meetings: Livingston 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 August 2026, ended Livingston 2–0 Dunfermline.
All Scottish Championship predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dunfermline vs Livingston
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dunfermline at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dunfermline vs Livingston
Dunfermline
- W1-0away to Morton19 September 2026
- W2-0Queen's Park12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arbroath5 September 2026
- W1-0Raith Rovers28 August 2026
- L0-2away to Livingston22 August 2026
Livingston
- W2-0away to Raith Rovers25 September 2026
- D2-2Inverness CT19 September 2026
- W4-1away to Morton11 September 2026
- L0-1Stenhousemuir4 September 2026
- L0-1away to Arbroath29 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Dunfermline had two goals or fewer.
- Dunfermline scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Livingston conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dunfermline | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 12 |
| 3 | Livingston | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dunfermline vs Livingston
- 22 August 2026Livingston 2–0 DunfermlineChampionship
- 2 April 2025Dunfermline 1–0 LivingstonChampionship
- 15 February 2025Livingston 0–0 DunfermlineChampionship
- 5 February 2025Dunfermline 0–2 LivingstonChallenge Cup
- 29 October 2024Dunfermline 3–0 LivingstonChampionship
- 3 August 2024Livingston 2–0 DunfermlineChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dunfermline carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.21 for Livingston. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Dunfermline and 1.09 for Livingston. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dunfermline rate 0.54 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Livingston rate 0.54 and 1.96.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Livingston, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dunfermline a 11.4% chance of the title and Livingston 4.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dunfermline the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Dunfermline against 1.09 for Livingston. Dunfermline's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.96 for Livingston.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dunfermline at home · Livingston away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Dunfermline 7, Livingston 8.
Livingston score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Dunfermline have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dunfermline
- vs Partick20 Oct · Championshipwin 41%
- at Queen's Park24 Oct · Championshipwin 48%
- at Stenhousemuir27 Oct · Championshipwin 27%
- vs Inverness CT31 Oct · Championshipwin 51%
Livingston
- vs Arbroath24 Oct · Championshipwin 39%
- at Stenhousemuir30 Oct · Championshipwin 25%
- at Inverness CT7 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.