Zlin
vs
Slovácko
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Zlin 1–2 Slovácko
The model makes it 34% Zlin, 28% draw, 38% Slovácko — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Zlin 1.34, Slovácko 1.43.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Zlin's rating is built from 46 Czech Liga matches and Slovácko's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 646 matches.
Key facts
- Zlin are bottom on 1 point from 11 games; Slovácko are 15th on 7 points from 11 games — Czech Liga.
- Zlin have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Pardubice.
- Slovácko have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Zbrojovka Brno.
- Last 6 meetings: Slovácko 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Zlin 1–0 Slovácko.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zlin vs Slovácko
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slovácko at 38% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Zlin vs Slovácko
Zlin
Czech Liga
- L0-3away to Pardubice17 October 2026
- L0-1Slavia Praha9 October 2026
- D1-1away to FK Jablonec20 September 2026
- L1-2Hradec Králové13 September 2026
- L1-3Teplice6 September 2026
Slovácko
Czech Liga
- L1-2Zbrojovka Brno18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Slovan Liberec11 October 2026
- D2-2Baník Ostrava19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bohemians 190512 September 2026
- D0-0Pardubice5 September 2026
What these results say
- Zlin did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Zlin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Slovácko failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Zlin | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 1 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Zlin vs Slovácko
- 23 May 2026Zlin 1–0 SlováckoCzech Liga
- 23 November 2025Slovácko 2–0 ZlinCzech Liga
- 26 July 2025Zlin 1–1 SlováckoCzech Liga
- 18 February 2024Zlin 2–1 SlováckoCzech Liga
- 2 September 2023Slovácko 1–0 ZlinCzech Liga
- 19 March 2023Slovácko 3–0 ZlinCzech Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zlin carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.5 for Slovácko. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Zlin and 1.43 for Slovácko. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zlin rate 0.64 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slovácko rate 0.68 and 1.38.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slovácko the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Zlin against 1.43 for Slovácko. Zlin's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.38 for Slovácko.
How the model reaches 38% for Slovácko to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Slovácko to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Zlin's ratings add 26 points and Slovácko's ratings take away 20 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Zlin's ratings58%+26
- Slovácko's ratings38%−20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zlin at home · Slovácko away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ZlinSlovácko
Zlin are 16th after 11 Czech Liga matches (between 14th and 16th so far); Slovácko are 15th after 11 (between 11th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Zlin 11, Slovácko 11.
Zlin score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Slovácko have let in 1 there.
Slovácko score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Zlin have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Zlin
- at Mlada Boleslav21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 19%
- vs Sparta Praha29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 15%
- at Bohemians 19056 Dec · Czech Ligawin 21%
Slovácko
- vs Hradec Králové22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 32%
- at Artis27 Nov · Czech Ligawin 37%
- vs FK Jablonec5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.