Slavia Praha
vs
Mlada Boleslav
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Slavia Praha 2–0 Mlada Boleslav
The model makes it 68% Slavia Praha, 19% draw, 13% Mlada Boleslav — fair odds of 1.47, 5.26 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Slavia Praha 2.56, Mlada Boleslav 0.84.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Slavia Praha are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Slavia Praha are top on 26 points from 10 games; Mlada Boleslav are 4th on 17 points from 9 games — Czech Liga.
- Slavia Praha are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Zlin.
- Mlada Boleslav have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Plzen.
- Last 6 meetings: Slavia Praha 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended Slavia Praha 4–0 Mlada Boleslav.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slavia Praha at 68% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav
Slavia Praha
- W1-0away to Zlin9 October 2026
- W2-1Plzen20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Teplice13 September 2026
- W4-0Zbrojovka Brno5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Sparta Praha30 August 2026
Mlada Boleslav
- L0-3away to Plzen10 October 2026
- W2-0Zbrojovka Brno19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Slovan Liberec12 September 2026
- W4-0Baník Ostrava6 September 2026
- W2-1Slovácko22 August 2026
What these results say
- Slavia Praha won every one of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Praha scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Praha kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mlada Boleslav had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 6 | +20 | 26 |
| 4 | Mlada Boleslav | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Slavia Praha
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 93% today
Mlada Boleslav
Chance to finish in the top four · 37% today
From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Slavia Praha vs Mlada Boleslav
- 7 February 2026Slavia Praha 4–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 30 August 2025Mlada Boleslav 1–3 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 2 February 2025Slavia Praha 1–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 17 September 2024Mlada Boleslav 0–2 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 26 May 2024Slavia Praha 4–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 10 December 2023Slavia Praha 2–0 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Slavia Praha and Mlada Boleslav
Slavia Praha
GoalsAssists
- W. Nowak51
- E. Ayaosi41
- M. Chytil40
Mlada Boleslav
GoalsAssists
- M. Šubert61
- J. Klíma41
- S. John33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Slavia Praha carry a model rating of 7.15 against 6.69 for Mlada Boleslav. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.56 goals for Slavia Praha and 0.84 for Mlada Boleslav. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slavia Praha rate 1.36 in attack and 0.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mlada Boleslav rate 0.89 and 1.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Slavia Praha a 93.4% chance of the title and Mlada Boleslav 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slavia Praha the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Slavia Praha against 0.84 for Mlada Boleslav. Slavia Praha's attack/defence rating is 1.36/0.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.24 for Mlada Boleslav.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Slavia Praha at home · Mlada Boleslav away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Slavia PrahaMlada Boleslav
Slavia Praha are 1st after 10 Czech Liga matches (between 1st and 1st so far); Mlada Boleslav are 3rd after 9 (between 1st and 4th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Slavia Praha 10, Mlada Boleslav 9.
Slavia Praha score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Mlada Boleslav have let in 2 there.
Mlada Boleslav score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Slavia Praha have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Slavia Praha
- at FK Jablonec31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 60%
- vs Arsenal4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 37%
- vs Artis8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 84%
Mlada Boleslav
- vs Hradec Králové1 Nov · Czech Ligawin 43%
- at FK Jablonec8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 35%
- vs Zlin21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.