Zbrojovka Brno
vs
Baník Ostrava
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Zbrojovka Brno 1–0 Baník Ostrava
The model makes it 47% Zbrojovka Brno, 29% draw, 24% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Zbrojovka Brno 1.50, Baník Ostrava 0.93.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Zbrojovka Brno: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Zbrojovka Brno's rating is built from 11 Czech Liga matches and Baník Ostrava's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 646 matches.
Key facts
- Zbrojovka Brno are 5th on 19 points from 11 games; Baník Ostrava are 13th on 11 points from 11 games — Czech Liga.
- Zbrojovka Brno have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Slovácko.
- Baník Ostrava have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Sparta Praha.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 May 2023, ended Baník Ostrava 4–0 Zbrojovka Brno.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zbrojovka Brno at 47% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava
Zbrojovka Brno
Czech Liga
- W2-1away to Slovácko18 October 2026
- L0-1FK Jablonec10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Mlada Boleslav19 September 2026
- W2-1Artis12 September 2026
- L0-4away to Slavia Praha5 September 2026
Baník Ostrava
Czech Liga
- D0-0Sparta Praha18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bohemians 190510 October 2026
- D2-2away to Slovácko19 September 2026
- L1-2Pardubice13 September 2026
- L0-3away to FK Jablonec9 September 2026
What these results say
- Zbrojovka Brno conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Baník Ostrava did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Baník Ostrava conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Zbrojovka Brno | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 19 |
| 13 | Baník Ostrava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Zbrojovka Brno vs Baník Ostrava
- 6 May 2023Baník Ostrava 4–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 18 February 2023Zbrojovka Brno 2–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 31 August 2022Baník Ostrava 1–2 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 1 May 2021Baník Ostrava 1–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 23 December 2020Zbrojovka Brno 0–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Zbrojovka Brno and Baník Ostrava
Zbrojovka Brno
GoalsAssists
- D. Vašulín50
- A. Vaníček31
Baník Ostrava
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zbrojovka Brno carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.48 for Baník Ostrava. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 0.93 for Baník Ostrava. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zbrojovka Brno rate 0.75 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Baník Ostrava rate 0.62 and 1.32.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zbrojovka Brno a 0.2% chance of the title and Baník Ostrava 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zbrojovka Brno the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno against 0.93 for Baník Ostrava. Zbrojovka Brno's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.32 for Baník Ostrava.
How the model reaches 47% for Zbrojovka Brno to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Zbrojovka Brno to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Zbrojovka Brno's ratings take away 12 points and Baník Ostrava's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Zbrojovka Brno's ratings29%−12
- Baník Ostrava's ratings47%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zbrojovka Brno at home · Baník Ostrava away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Zbrojovka Brno 11, Baník Ostrava 11.
Zbrojovka Brno score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Baník Ostrava have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Zbrojovka Brno
- at Pardubice22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 33%
- vs Plzen29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 29%
- at Slovan Liberec5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 27%
Baník Ostrava
- vs Teplice21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 30%
- at Slavia Praha29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 8%
- vs Hradec Králové6 Dec · Czech Ligawin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.