Debreceni VSC
vs
Ujpest
NB I prediction
Our model says: Debreceni VSC 2–1 Ujpest
The model makes it 46% Debreceni VSC, 25% draw, 29% Ujpest — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Debreceni VSC 1.90, Ujpest 1.43.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Debreceni VSC's rating is built from 43 Hungarian NB I matches and Ujpest's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 455 matches.
Key facts
- Debreceni VSC are 7th on 13 points from 10 games; Ujpest are 4th on 15 points from 10 games — NB I.
- Debreceni VSC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Zalaegerszegi TE.
- Ujpest have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Puskas Academy.
- Last 6 meetings: Ujpest 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended Ujpest 4–2 Debreceni VSC.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Debreceni VSC vs Ujpest
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Debreceni VSC at 46% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Debreceni VSC vs Ujpest
Debreceni VSC
NB I
- W3-0Zalaegerszegi TE18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ferencvarosi TC10 October 2026
- L2-4Vasas19 September 2026
- W4-2away to Paks5 September 2026
- D2-2MTK Budapest28 August 2026
Ujpest
NB I
- L0-1Puskas Academy17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Budapest Honved11 October 2026
- W2-1Zalaegerszegi TE20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Ferencvarosi TC6 September 2026
- W3-1Vasas29 August 2026
What these results say
- Debreceni VSC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Debreceni VSC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Debreceni VSC had three goals or more.
- Ujpest conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ujpest scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Ujpest.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Debreceni VSC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Debreceni VSC vs Ujpest
- 2 August 2026Ujpest 4–2 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 16 May 2026Debreceni VSC 2–1 UjpestNB I
- 13 February 2026Ujpest 2–1 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 26 October 2025Debreceni VSC 5–2 UjpestNB I
- 13 April 2025Ujpest 2–1 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 8 December 2024Debreceni VSC 1–2 UjpestNB I
Leading scorers: Debreceni VSC and Ujpest
Debreceni VSC
GoalsAssists
- Á. Szendrei52
- B. Dzsudzsák40
Ujpest
GoalsAssists
- A. Matko53
- E. Amenyido34
- G. Vlijter32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Debreceni VSC carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.44 for Ujpest. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for Debreceni VSC and 1.43 for Ujpest. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Debreceni VSC rate 0.71 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ujpest rate 0.70 and 1.61.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ujpest, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Debreceni VSC a 2.5% chance of the title and Ujpest 2.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Debreceni VSC the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Debreceni VSC against 1.43 for Ujpest. Debreceni VSC's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.61 for Ujpest.
How the model reaches 46% for Debreceni VSC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Debreceni VSC to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Debreceni VSC's ratings take away 19 points and Ujpest's ratings add 23 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- Debreceni VSC's ratings23%−19
- Ujpest's ratings46%+23
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Debreceni VSC at home · Ujpest away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Debreceni VSCUjpest
Debreceni VSC are 7th after 10 NB I matches (between 7th and 12th so far); Ujpest are 4th after 10 (between 1st and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Debreceni VSC 10, Ujpest 10.
Debreceni VSC score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Ujpest have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Debreceni VSC
- at Nyiregyhaza21 Nov · NB Iwin 44%
- at Gyori ETO FC28 Nov · NB Iwin 25%
- vs Kisvarda FC5 Dec · NB Iwin 47%
Ujpest
- vs Kisvarda FC21 Nov · NB Iwin 44%
- at MTK Budapest28 Nov · NB Iwin 35%
- vs Paks5 Dec · NB Iwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.