Hradec Králové
vs
Sigma Olomouc
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Hradec Králové 1–0 Sigma Olomouc
The model makes it 37% Hradec Králové, 29% draw, 34% Sigma Olomouc — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hradec Králové 1.31, Sigma Olomouc 1.25.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
A tight game: Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Hradec Králové's rating is built from 46 Czech Liga matches and Sigma Olomouc's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 646 matches.
Key facts
- Hradec Králové are 11th on 15 points from 11 games; Sigma Olomouc are 2nd on 20 points from 11 games — Czech Liga.
- Hradec Králové are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Slavia Praha.
- Sigma Olomouc have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Slovan Liberec.
- Last 6 meetings: Hradec Králové 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Sigma Olomouc 1–0 Hradec Králové.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hradec Králové at 37% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc
Hradec Králové
Czech Liga
- D0-0away to Slavia Praha17 October 2026
- L2-4Artis10 October 2026
- L0-2Teplice20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Zlin13 September 2026
- D0-0Plzen9 September 2026
Sigma Olomouc
Czech Liga
- W1-0Slovan Liberec17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Teplice11 October 2026
- L0-3Sparta Praha20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Plzen13 September 2026
- W3-0Bohemians 19055 September 2026
What these results say
- Hradec Králové failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sigma Olomouc scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hradec Králové | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 15 |
| 2 | Sigma Olomouc | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc
- 31 January 2026Sigma Olomouc 1–0 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 24 August 2025Hradec Králové 1–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 16 March 2025Sigma Olomouc 1–2 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 19 October 2024Hradec Králové 1–1 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 12 May 2024Sigma Olomouc 1–3 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 5 May 2024Hradec Králové 3–1 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc
Hradec Králové
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Sigma Olomouc
GoalsAssists
- A. Ghali41
- V. Sejk33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hradec Králové carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.72 for Sigma Olomouc. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Hradec Králové and 1.25 for Sigma Olomouc. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hradec Králové rate 0.72 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sigma Olomouc rate 0.92 and 1.20.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sigma Olomouc, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hradec Králové a 0% chance of the title and Sigma Olomouc 0.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hradec Králové the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Hradec Králové against 1.25 for Sigma Olomouc. Hradec Králové's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.2 for Sigma Olomouc.
How the model reaches 37% for Hradec Králové to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hradec Králové to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Hradec Králové's ratings take away 11 points and Sigma Olomouc's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Hradec Králové's ratings30%−11
- Sigma Olomouc's ratings37%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hradec Králové at home · Sigma Olomouc away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Hradec Králové 11, Sigma Olomouc 11.
Hradec Králové score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Sigma Olomouc have let in 1 there.
Sigma Olomouc score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Hradec Králové have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Hradec Králové
- at Slovácko22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 38%
- vs Bohemians 190528 Nov · Czech Ligawin 40%
- at Baník Ostrava6 Dec · Czech Ligawin 39%
Sigma Olomouc
- vs Slavia Praha21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 20%
- at Mlada Boleslav28 Nov · Czech Ligawin 34%
- vs Artis5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 61%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.