Zbrojovka Brno
vs
Bohemians 1905
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Zbrojovka Brno 1–0 Bohemians 1905
The model makes it 38% Zbrojovka Brno, 31% draw, 31% Bohemians 1905 — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Zbrojovka Brno 1.17, Bohemians 1905 0.98.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Zbrojovka Brno are 8th on 16 points from 10 games; Bohemians 1905 are 11th on 12 points from 9 games — Czech Liga.
- Zbrojovka Brno have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to FK Jablonec.
- Bohemians 1905 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Baník Ostrava.
- Last 4 meetings: Bohemians 1905 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 February 2023, ended Bohemians 1905 1–1 Zbrojovka Brno.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zbrojovka Brno at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905
Zbrojovka Brno
- L0-1FK Jablonec10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Mlada Boleslav19 September 2026
- W2-1Artis12 September 2026
- L0-4away to Slavia Praha5 September 2026
- W1-0Hradec Králové2 September 2026
Bohemians 1905
- W1-0Baník Ostrava10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Pardubice19 September 2026
- W2-0Slovácko12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Sigma Olomouc5 September 2026
- D1-1FK Jablonec2 September 2026
What these results say
- Zbrojovka Brno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bohemians 1905 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Zbrojovka Brno | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Bohemians 1905 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Zbrojovka Brno
Chance to finish in the top four · 11% today
Bohemians 1905
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Zbrojovka Brno vs Bohemians 1905
- 25 February 2023Bohemians 1905 1–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 4 September 2022Zbrojovka Brno 1–2 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
- 6 February 2021Bohemians 1905 2–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 30 August 2020Zbrojovka Brno 0–0 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
Leading scorers: Zbrojovka Brno and Bohemians 1905
Zbrojovka Brno
GoalsAssists
- D. Vašulín40
- A. Vaníček31
Bohemians 1905
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zbrojovka Brno carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.61 for Bohemians 1905. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 0.98 for Bohemians 1905. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zbrojovka Brno rate 0.70 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bohemians 1905 rate 0.66 and 1.10.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zbrojovka Brno a 0.1% chance of the title and Bohemians 1905 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zbrojovka Brno the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno against 0.98 for Bohemians 1905. Zbrojovka Brno's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.1 for Bohemians 1905.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zbrojovka Brno at home · Bohemians 1905 away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Zbrojovka BrnoBohemians 1905
Zbrojovka Brno are 7th after 10 Czech Liga matches (between 2nd and 7th so far); Bohemians 1905 are 11th after 9 (between 8th and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Zbrojovka Brno 10, Bohemians 1905 9.
Zbrojovka Brno score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Bohemians 1905 have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zbrojovka Brno
- at Sigma Olomouc31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 27%
- vs Baník Ostrava7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 46%
- at Pardubice22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 33%
- vs Plzen29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 27%
Bohemians 1905
- vs Sparta Praha1 Nov · Czech Ligawin 23%
- at Slovan Liberec7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 24%
- vs Plzen21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.