Baník Ostrava
vs
Plzen
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Baník Ostrava 1–2 Plzen
The model makes it 22% Baník Ostrava, 24% draw, 54% Plzen — fair odds of 4.55, 4.17 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Baník Ostrava 1.10, Plzen 2.05.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Plzen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Baník Ostrava are 13th on 10 points from 10 games; Plzen are 11th on 13 points from 10 games — Czech Liga.
- Baník Ostrava have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Bohemians 1905.
- Plzen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Mlada Boleslav.
- Last 6 meetings: Plzen 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Baník Ostrava 0–1 Plzen.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Baník Ostrava vs Plzen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Plzen at 54% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Baník Ostrava vs Plzen
Baník Ostrava
- L0-1away to Bohemians 190510 October 2026
- D2-2away to Slovácko19 September 2026
- L1-2Pardubice13 September 2026
- L0-3away to FK Jablonec9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Mlada Boleslav6 September 2026
Plzen
- W3-0Mlada Boleslav10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Slavia Praha20 September 2026
- L2-3Sigma Olomouc13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hradec Králové9 September 2026
- W3-0away to Artis5 September 2026
What these results say
- Baník Ostrava did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Baník Ostrava conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Baník Ostrava had three goals or more.
- Plzen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Plzen had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Baník Ostrava | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 10 |
| 11 | Plzen | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Baník Ostrava vs Plzen
- 25 April 2026Baník Ostrava 0–1 PlzenCzech Liga
- 26 October 2025Plzen 2–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 11 May 2025Plzen 1–2 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 16 March 2025Plzen 0–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 19 October 2024Baník Ostrava 1–3 PlzenCzech Liga
- 18 May 2024Plzen 1–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Baník Ostrava and Plzen
Baník Ostrava
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Plzen
GoalsAssists
- C. Kabongo40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Baník Ostrava carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.87 for Plzen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Baník Ostrava and 2.05 for Plzen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Baník Ostrava rate 0.65 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Plzen rate 1.15 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Baník Ostrava a 0% chance of the title and Plzen 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Plzen the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Baník Ostrava against 2.05 for Plzen. Baník Ostrava's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/1.12 for Plzen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Baník Ostrava at home · Plzen away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Baník OstravaPlzen
Baník Ostrava are 12th after 10 Czech Liga matches (between 3rd and 12th so far); Plzen are 10th after 10 (between 8th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Baník Ostrava 10, Plzen 10.
Plzen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Baník Ostrava have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Baník Ostrava
- at Zbrojovka Brno7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 26%
- vs Teplice21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 30%
- at Slavia Praha29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 7%
Plzen
- at Lillestrom5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 46%
- vs Sparta Praha8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.