Slovan Liberec
vs
Bohemians 1905
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Slovan Liberec 1–0 Bohemians 1905
The model makes it 41% Slovan Liberec, 33% draw, 26% Bohemians 1905 — fair odds of 2.44, 3.03 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Slovan Liberec 1.10, Bohemians 1905 0.76.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Slovan Liberec's rating is built from 46 Czech Liga matches and Bohemians 1905's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 646 matches.
Key facts
- Slovan Liberec are 3rd on 20 points from 11 games; Bohemians 1905 are 10th on 15 points from 10 games — Czech Liga.
- Slovan Liberec are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Sigma Olomouc.
- Bohemians 1905 have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Mlada Boleslav.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Bohemians 1905 0–0 Slovan Liberec.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slovan Liberec at 41% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905
Slovan Liberec
Czech Liga
- L0-1away to Sigma Olomouc17 October 2026
- L0-2Slovácko11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Artis19 September 2026
- W3-0Mlada Boleslav12 September 2026
- W2-1away to FK Jablonec6 September 2026
Bohemians 1905
Czech Liga
- W1-0Mlada Boleslav14 October 2026
- W1-0Baník Ostrava10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Pardubice19 September 2026
- W2-0Slovácko12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Sigma Olomouc5 September 2026
What these results say
- Bohemians 1905 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Slovan Liberec | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 20 |
| 10 | Bohemians 1905 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905
- 7 March 2026Bohemians 1905 0–0 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 4 October 2025Slovan Liberec 0–0 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
- 11 May 2025Slovan Liberec 1–0 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
- 4 May 2025Bohemians 1905 4–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 23 February 2025Bohemians 1905 0–0 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 22 September 2024Slovan Liberec 2–2 Bohemians 1905Czech Liga
Leading scorers: Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905
Slovan Liberec
GoalsAssists
- P. Dulay31
Bohemians 1905
GoalsAssists
- A. Čermák41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Slovan Liberec carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.63 for Bohemians 1905. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.76 for Bohemians 1905. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slovan Liberec rate 0.68 in attack and 0.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bohemians 1905 rate 0.67 and 1.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Slovan Liberec a 0.3% chance of the title and Bohemians 1905 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slovan Liberec the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Slovan Liberec against 0.76 for Bohemians 1905. Slovan Liberec's attack/defence rating is 0.68/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.07 for Bohemians 1905.
How the model reaches 41% for Slovan Liberec to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Slovan Liberec to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Slovan Liberec's ratings take away 9 points and Bohemians 1905's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Slovan Liberec's ratings32%−9
- Bohemians 1905's ratings41%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Slovan Liberec at home · Bohemians 1905 away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Slovan Liberec 11, Bohemians 1905 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Slovan Liberec
- at Sparta Praha22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 21%
- at Teplice28 Nov · Czech Ligawin 32%
- vs Zbrojovka Brno5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 42%
Bohemians 1905
- vs Plzen21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 28%
- at Hradec Králové28 Nov · Czech Ligawin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.