Zlin
vs
Sigma Olomouc
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Zlin 1–2 Sigma Olomouc
The model makes it 27% Zlin, 25% draw, 48% Sigma Olomouc — fair odds of 3.70, 4.00 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Zlin 1.23, Sigma Olomouc 1.83.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Sigma Olomouc: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Zlin are bottom on 1 point from 10 games; Sigma Olomouc are 5th on 17 points from 10 games — Czech Liga.
- Zlin have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Slavia Praha.
- Sigma Olomouc have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Teplice.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 December 2025, ended Zlin 5–0 Sigma Olomouc.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sigma Olomouc at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc
Zlin
- L0-1Slavia Praha9 October 2026
- D1-1away to FK Jablonec20 September 2026
- L1-2Hradec Králové13 September 2026
- L1-3Teplice6 September 2026
- L2-3away to Zbrojovka Brno29 August 2026
Sigma Olomouc
- D1-1away to Teplice11 October 2026
- L0-3Sparta Praha20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Plzen13 September 2026
- W3-0Bohemians 19055 September 2026
- L0-1away to Baník Ostrava29 August 2026
What these results say
- Zlin did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Zlin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zlin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sigma Olomouc conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Zlin | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 1 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Zlin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 89% today
Sigma Olomouc
Chance to finish in the top four · 26% today
From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc
- 14 December 2025Zlin 5–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 16 August 2025Sigma Olomouc 1–0 ZlinCzech Liga
- 6 April 2024Zlin 3–2 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 28 October 2023Sigma Olomouc 0–0 ZlinCzech Liga
- 15 April 2023Zlin 0–1 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 7 January 2023Zlin 2–2 Sigma OlomoucFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Zlin and Sigma Olomouc
Zlin
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Sigma Olomouc
GoalsAssists
- A. Ghali41
- V. Sejk33
- P. Baráth31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Zlin carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.7 for Sigma Olomouc. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Zlin and 1.83 for Sigma Olomouc. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zlin rate 0.66 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sigma Olomouc rate 0.91 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zlin a 0% chance of the title and Sigma Olomouc 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sigma Olomouc the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Zlin against 1.83 for Sigma Olomouc. Zlin's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.23 for Sigma Olomouc.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zlin at home · Sigma Olomouc away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ZlinSigma Olomouc
Zlin are 16th after 10 Czech Liga matches (between 14th and 16th so far); Sigma Olomouc are 4th after 10 (between 2nd and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Zlin 10, Sigma Olomouc 10.
Zlin score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Sigma Olomouc have let in 1 there.
Sigma Olomouc score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Zlin have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zlin
- at Artis31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 33%
- vs Slovácko7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 35%
- at Mlada Boleslav21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 20%
- vs Sparta Praha29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 16%
Sigma Olomouc
- vs Zbrojovka Brno31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 46%
- at Hradec Králové7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 35%
- vs Slavia Praha21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 19%
- at Mlada Boleslav28 Nov · Czech Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.