Kisvarda FC
vs
Puskas Academy
NB I prediction
Our model says: Kisvarda FC 0–1 Puskas Academy
The model makes it 30% Kisvarda FC, 31% draw, 39% Puskas Academy — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Kisvarda FC 0.97, Puskas Academy 1.20.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Edge to Puskas Academy: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Kisvarda FC's rating is built from 43 Hungarian NB I matches and Puskas Academy's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 455 matches.
Key facts
- Kisvarda FC are 9th on 11 points from 10 games; Puskas Academy are top on 21 points from 10 games — NB I.
- Kisvarda FC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Ferencvarosi TC.
- Puskas Academy are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Ujpest.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 31 July 2026, ended Puskas Academy 0–2 Kisvarda FC.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kisvarda FC vs Puskas Academy
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Puskas Academy at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kisvarda FC vs Puskas Academy
Kisvarda FC
NB I
- D1-1Ferencvarosi TC18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vasas10 October 2026
- L0-1Paks19 September 2026
- W2-1away to MTK Budapest5 September 2026
- D1-1Gyori ETO FC30 August 2026
Puskas Academy
NB I
- W1-0away to Ujpest17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Gyori ETO FC11 October 2026
- W3-1Budapest Honved18 September 2026
- L0-1away to Zalaegerszegi TE6 September 2026
- L1-2Ferencvarosi TC30 August 2026
What these results say
- Kisvarda FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kisvarda FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kisvarda FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puskas Academy scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kisvarda FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 |
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kisvarda FC vs Puskas Academy
- 31 July 2026Puskas Academy 0–2 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 6 March 2026Kisvarda FC 1–0 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 22 November 2025Puskas Academy 2–0 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 10 August 2025Kisvarda FC 2–1 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 4 May 2024Puskas Academy 4–2 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 10 February 2024Kisvarda FC 0–2 Puskas AcademyNB I
Leading scorers: Kisvarda FC and Puskas Academy
Kisvarda FC
GoalsAssists
- C. Herc30
- M. Matanović22
Puskas Academy
GoalsAssists
- A. Németh41
- P. Dárdai22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kisvarda FC carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.56 for Puskas Academy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.97 goals for Kisvarda FC and 1.20 for Puskas Academy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kisvarda FC rate 0.50 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Puskas Academy rate 0.64 and 1.17.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kisvarda FC a 0.2% chance of the title and Puskas Academy 20.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Puskas Academy the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Kisvarda FC against 1.20 for Puskas Academy. Kisvarda FC's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.17 for Puskas Academy.
How the model reaches 39% for Puskas Academy to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Puskas Academy to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Kisvarda FC's ratings add 25 points and Puskas Academy's ratings take away 18 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Kisvarda FC's ratings57%+25
- Puskas Academy's ratings39%−18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kisvarda FC at home · Puskas Academy away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Kisvarda FCPuskas Academy
Kisvarda FC are 9th after 10 NB I matches (between 1st and 10th so far); Puskas Academy are 1st after 10 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Kisvarda FC 10, Puskas Academy 10.
Kisvarda FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Puskas Academy have let in 1 there.
Puskas Academy score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Kisvarda FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Kisvarda FC
- at Ujpest21 Nov · NB Iwin 28%
- vs Nyiregyhaza28 Nov · NB Iwin 44%
- at Debreceni VSC5 Dec · NB Iwin 25%
Puskas Academy
- vs MTK Budapest21 Nov · NB Iwin 50%
- at Paks28 Nov · NB Iwin 35%
- vs Vasas5 Dec · NB Iwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.