RAAL La Louvière
vs
Cercle Brugge
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: RAAL La Louvière 1–2 Cercle Brugge
The model makes it 31% RAAL La Louvière, 25% draw, 44% Cercle Brugge — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: RAAL La Louvière 1.46, Cercle Brugge 1.86.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Cercle Brugge: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. RAAL La Louvière's rating is built from 44 Jupiler Pro League matches and Cercle Brugge's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.
Key facts
- RAAL La Louvière are 16th on 4 points from 8 games; Cercle Brugge are bottom on 3 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- RAAL La Louvière have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Club Brugge KV.
- Cercle Brugge have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Anderlecht.
- Last 4 meetings: RAAL La Louvière 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended RAAL La Louvière 4–1 Cercle Brugge.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cercle Brugge at 44% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge
RAAL La Louvière
Jupiler Pro League
- L1-4Club Brugge KV10 October 2026
- L0-2away to OH Leuven19 September 2026
- W3-0Kortrijk13 September 2026
- L0-4away to St. Truiden5 September 2026
- D2-2KV Mechelen29 August 2026
Cercle Brugge
Jupiler Pro League
- L1-2Anderlecht10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Charleroi19 September 2026
- D1-1away to OH Leuven12 September 2026
- L0-3Gent6 September 2026
- L0-1Lommel United29 August 2026
What these results say
- RAAL La Louvière failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- RAAL La Louvière conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for RAAL La Louvière had three goals or more.
- Cercle Brugge did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cercle Brugge conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 4 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge
- 9 May 2026RAAL La Louvière 4–1 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 11 April 2026Cercle Brugge 3–0 RAAL La LouvièreJupiler Pro League
- 15 March 2026Cercle Brugge 1–3 RAAL La LouvièreJupiler Pro League
- 2 November 2025RAAL La Louvière 2–1 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: RAAL La Louvière and Cercle Brugge
RAAL La Louvière
GoalsAssists
- M. Ubandoma50
Cercle Brugge
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
RAAL La Louvière carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.76 for Cercle Brugge. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.86 for Cercle Brugge. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
RAAL La Louvière rate 0.71 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cercle Brugge rate 1.04 and 1.27.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour RAAL La Louvière, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cercle Brugge the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière against 1.86 for Cercle Brugge. RAAL La Louvière's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/1.27 for Cercle Brugge.
How the model reaches 44% for Cercle Brugge to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cercle Brugge to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, RAAL La Louvière's ratings add 19 points and Cercle Brugge's ratings take away 5 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- RAAL La Louvière's ratings49%+19
- Cercle Brugge's ratings44%−5
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
RAAL La Louvière at home · Cercle Brugge away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: RAAL La Louvière 8, Cercle Brugge 8.
RAAL La Louvière score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Cercle Brugge have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
RAAL La Louvière
- at Genk21 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 17%
- at KVC Westerlo28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 18%
- vs Antwerp12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 38%
Cercle Brugge
- vs KVC Westerlo20 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 44%
- vs KV Mechelen28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 53%
- at SK Beveren12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.