KVC Westerlo
vs
Charleroi
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: KVC Westerlo 2–1 Charleroi
The model makes it 38% KVC Westerlo, 26% draw, 36% Charleroi — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: KVC Westerlo 1.59, Charleroi 1.51.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
A tight game: KVC Westerlo and Charleroi are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. KVC Westerlo's rating is built from 48 Jupiler Pro League matches and Charleroi's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.
Key facts
- KVC Westerlo are 6th on 13 points from 8 games; Charleroi are 3rd on 21 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- KVC Westerlo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 5-1 win at home to Antwerp.
- Charleroi are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Standard Liege.
- Last 6 meetings: KVC Westerlo 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Charleroi 0–1 KVC Westerlo.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts KVC Westerlo at 38% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi
KVC Westerlo
Jupiler Pro League
- W5-1Antwerp11 October 2026
- W2-0away to St. Truiden20 September 2026
- W4-2Standard Liege12 September 2026
- W4-0away to KV Mechelen5 September 2026
- D2-2Zulte Waregem30 August 2026
Charleroi
Jupiler Pro League
- W1-0away to Standard Liege11 October 2026
- W3-2Cercle Brugge19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Zulte Waregem13 September 2026
- L2-3Union St. Gilloise5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Kortrijk29 August 2026
What these results say
- KVC Westerlo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- KVC Westerlo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- KVC Westerlo won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Charleroi scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charleroi won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 13 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi
- 16 May 2026Charleroi 0–1 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 5 April 2026KVC Westerlo 2–0 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 22 February 2026KVC Westerlo 2–1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 8 November 2025Charleroi 2–0 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 9 May 2025Charleroi 4–3 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 11 April 2025KVC Westerlo 2–2 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: KVC Westerlo and Charleroi
KVC Westerlo
GoalsAssists
- N. Bassette50
- S. Saito31
Charleroi
GoalsAssists
- F. Situmona Mbemba30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
KVC Westerlo carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.88 for Charleroi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for KVC Westerlo and 1.51 for Charleroi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
KVC Westerlo rate 1.09 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Charleroi rate 0.94 and 0.90.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Charleroi, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives KVC Westerlo a 0.1% chance of the title and Charleroi 1.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives KVC Westerlo the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for KVC Westerlo against 1.51 for Charleroi. KVC Westerlo's attack/defence rating is 1.09/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.9 for Charleroi.
How the model reaches 38% for KVC Westerlo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for KVC Westerlo to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, KVC Westerlo's ratings take away 3 points and Charleroi's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- KVC Westerlo's ratings40%−3
- Charleroi's ratings38%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
KVC Westerlo at home · Charleroi away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
KVC WesterloCharleroi
KVC Westerlo are 6th after 8 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 6th and 18th so far); Charleroi are 3rd after 8 (between 1st and 4th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: KVC Westerlo 8, Charleroi 8.
Charleroi score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); KVC Westerlo have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
KVC Westerlo
- at Cercle Brugge20 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs RAAL La Louvière28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 61%
- at Club Brugge KV13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 11%
Charleroi
- vs St. Truiden21 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 47%
- vs SK Beveren28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 61%
- at Anderlecht13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.