Blackpool
vs
Wigan
League One prediction
Our model says: Blackpool 1–0 Wigan
The model makes it 45% Blackpool, 29% draw, 26% Wigan — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Blackpool 1.41, Wigan 0.96.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Blackpool's rating is built from 58 League One matches and Wigan's from 60, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,272 matches.
Key facts
- Blackpool are 19th on 12 points from 12 games; Wigan are 21st on 11 points from 14 games — League One.
- Blackpool have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Sheffield Wednesday.
- Wigan have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Mansfield Town.
- Last 6 meetings: Wigan 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 22 September 2026, ended Wigan 3–2 Blackpool.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Blackpool vs Wigan
Has the model earned this number?
Blackpool at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Blackpool vs Wigan
Blackpool
League One
- D1-1away to Sheffield Wednesday1 November 2026
- L1-4Mansfield Town24 October 2026
- W2-0Milton Keynes Dons20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Leyton Orient17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Cambridge United10 October 2026
Wigan
League One
- D0-0Mansfield Town3 November 2026
- W3-2Bromley31 October 2026
- L0-3away to Leicester27 October 2026
- L1-2away to Huddersfield24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Oxford United20 October 2026
What these results say
- Blackpool failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Blackpool conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Blackpool had two goals or fewer.
- Wigan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wigan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Wigan had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Blackpool | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 12 |
| 21 | Wigan | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Blackpool
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 24% today
Wigan
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 52% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Blackpool vs Wigan
- 22 September 2026Wigan 3–2 BlackpoolEFL Trophy
- 7 March 2026Blackpool 1–1 WiganLeague One
- 20 December 2025Wigan 0–2 BlackpoolLeague One
- 26 April 2025Wigan 1–1 BlackpoolLeague One
- 28 October 2024Blackpool 2–2 WiganLeague One
- 16 March 2024Wigan 1–0 BlackpoolLeague One
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Blackpool the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Blackpool against 0.96 for Wigan. Blackpool's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/1.78 for Wigan.
How the model reaches 45% for Blackpool to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Blackpool to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Blackpool's ratings add 3 points and Wigan's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−2
- Blackpool's ratings43%+3
- Wigan's ratings45%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Blackpool at home · Wigan away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Blackpool 12, Wigan 14.
Blackpool score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Wigan have let in 2 there.
Wigan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Blackpool have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Blackpool
- vs Leicester24 Nov · League Onewin 36%
- at Stevenage28 Nov · League Onewin 25%
- vs Luton1 Dec · League Onewin 32%
Wigan
- vs Plymouth28 Nov · League Onewin 29%
- at Burton Albion1 Dec · League Onewin 25%
- at Luton12 Dec · League Onewin 18%
- vs Peterborough19 Dec · League Onewin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.