Bradford
vs
Doncaster
League One prediction
Our model says: Bradford 1–0 Doncaster
The model makes it 47% Bradford, 31% draw, 22% Doncaster — fair odds of 2.13, 3.23 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Bradford 1.30, Doncaster 0.71.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Bradford: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Bradford's rating is built from 61 League One matches and Doncaster's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,272 matches.
Key facts
- Bradford are 7th on 22 points from 13 games; Doncaster are 20th on 12 points from 13 games — League One.
- Bradford are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Huddersfield.
- Doncaster have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to Milton Keynes Dons.
- Last 6 meetings: Doncaster 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Bradford 1–0 Doncaster.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bradford vs Doncaster
Has the model earned this number?
Bradford at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bradford vs Doncaster
Bradford
League One
- L0-3Huddersfield31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Oxford United24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Burton Albion20 October 2026
- W2-0Stevenage17 October 2026
- D0-0Leyton Orient10 October 2026
Doncaster
League One
- L1-6away to Milton Keynes Dons31 October 2026
- L1-3away to Luton27 October 2026
- W2-0Sheffield Wednesday24 October 2026
- L0-2Stockport County20 October 2026
- L1-2away to Leicester17 October 2026
What these results say
- Bradford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bradford failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bradford kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Doncaster failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Doncaster scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Doncaster conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bradford | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 22 |
| 20 | Doncaster | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Doncaster
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 39% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bradford vs Doncaster
- 31 January 2026Bradford 1–0 DoncasterLeague One
- 11 November 2025Doncaster 3–1 BradfordEFL Trophy
- 6 September 2025Doncaster 3–1 BradfordLeague One
- 26 April 2025Doncaster 2–1 BradfordLeague Two
- 26 October 2024Bradford 1–2 DoncasterLeague Two
- 5 March 2024Bradford 1–1 DoncasterLeague Two
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bradford a 1.2% chance of the title and Doncaster 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bradford the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bradford against 0.71 for Doncaster. Bradford's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.03 for Doncaster.
How the model reaches 47% for Bradford to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bradford to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Bradford's ratings add 2 points and Doncaster's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level38%−4
- Bradford's ratings40%+2
- Doncaster's ratings47%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bradford at home · Doncaster away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Bradford 13, Doncaster 13.
Doncaster score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Bradford have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bradford
- vs Barnsley24 Nov · League Onewin 48%
- at Wycombe28 Nov · League Onewin 31%
- vs Milton Keynes Dons1 Dec · League Onewin 41%
- vs AFC Wimbledon12 Dec · League Onewin 51%
Doncaster
- vs Huddersfield26 Nov · League Onewin 25%
- at Reading1 Dec · League Onewin 19%
- vs Bromley12 Dec · League Onewin 54%
- vs Oxford United15 Dec · League Onewin 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.