Regular Season - 14 · 22 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

FC Basel 1893 vs FC Luzern Super League prediction

St. Jakob-Park, Basel

Our model says: FC Basel 1893 2–1 FC Luzern

The model makes it 40% FC Basel 1893, 26% draw, 34% FC Luzern — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: FC Basel 1893 1.73, FC Luzern 1.56.

Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 8 November 2026 · updated 12 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. FC Basel 1893's rating is built from 51 Swiss Super League matches and FC Luzern's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 538 matches.

Key facts

FC Basel 1893 are 7th on 15 points from 13 games; FC Luzern are 9th on 13 points from 13 games — Super League.
FC Basel 1893 have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to FC Thun.
FC Luzern are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to BSC Young Boys.
Last 6 meetings: FC Basel 1893 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 September 2026, ended FC Luzern 2–4 FC Basel 1893.

More Swiss Super League predictions

All Swiss Super League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Luzern

66%

Both teams to score

64%

Over 2.5 goals

36%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

FC Basel 1893 win Draw FC Luzern win

1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
2–27%
1–06%
2–06%
0–15%

Scores read FC Basel 1893 first; the other scorelines share the remaining 48%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

FC Basel 1893 at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into FC Basel 1893 vs FC Luzern

FC Basel 1893

Super League

D3-3away to FC Thun8 November 2026
L1-2away to FC Lugano1 November 2026
D0-0Grasshoppers25 October 2026
L0-3away to FC Vaduz11 October 2026
L1-3FC St. Gallen20 September 2026

FC Luzern

Super League

L2-3BSC Young Boys7 November 2026
D1-1FC Sion31 October 2026
L1-2away to FC Zurich24 October 2026
L0-4away to FC Lugano10 October 2026
W5-1Grasshoppers19 September 2026

What these results say

FC Basel 1893 did not win any of these 5 matches.
FC Basel 1893 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for FC Basel 1893 had three goals or more.
FC Luzern conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
FC Luzern failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
FC Luzern scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
7	FC Basel 1893	13	4	3	6	21	25	-4	15
9	FC Luzern	13	3	4	6	21	28	-7	13

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

FC Basel 1893

Chance to finish in the top six · 23% today

Win 33%

Draw 20%

Defeat 13%

FC Luzern

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today

Win 12%

Draw 24%

Defeat 31%

From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Luzern

13 September 2026FC Luzern 2–4 FC Basel 1893Super League
22 February 2026FC Luzern 4–2 FC Basel 1893Super League
17 December 2025FC Luzern 1–2 FC Basel 1893Super League
28 September 2025FC Basel 1893 1–2 FC LuzernSuper League
24 May 2025FC Basel 1893 4–0 FC LuzernSuper League
9 March 2025FC Luzern 1–1 FC Basel 1893Super League

Leading scorers: FC Basel 1893 and FC Luzern

FC Basel 1893

GoalsAssists

Ž. Celar82

FC Luzern

GoalsAssists

D. Mikołajewski43
M. Di Giusto43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

FC Basel 1893 FC Luzern

0.59 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.7

1.47 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.57

1.73 Model expected goals (this match) 1.56

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Basel 1893 the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 against 1.56 for FC Luzern. FC Basel 1893's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.57 for FC Luzern.

How the model reaches 40% for FC Basel 1893 to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for FC Basel 1893 to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, FC Basel 1893's ratings take away 2 points and FC Luzern's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 40%.

Two average sides, neutral ground38%
Home advantage43%+5
FC Basel 1893's ratings41%−2
FC Luzern's ratings40%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

FC Basel 1893ModelFC Luzern

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

85%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

64%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

42%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Both teams score

80%

8 of 10 games

66%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

FC Basel 1893FC Luzern

13Matches13

4W 3D 6LRecord3W 4D 6L

21 1.6 per gameGoals scored21 1.6 per game

25 1.9 per gameGoals conceded28 2.2 per game

2 of 13Clean sheets1 of 13

3 of 13Failed to score2 of 13

4 of 4Penalties scored3 of 3

28 2.2 per gameYellow cards32 2.5 per game

1Red cards2

4-2-3-1 7×Usual shape4-4-2 6×

FC Basel 1893 at home · FC Luzern away

6Played6

1W 1D 4LRecord0W 3D 3L

7–11Goals for – against7–15

1 of 6Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, Super League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

FC Basel 1893FC Luzern

FC Basel 1893 are 7th after 13 Super League matches (between 1st and 7th so far); FC Luzern are 9th after 13 (between 4th and 12th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Super League matches this season: FC Basel 1893 13, FC Luzern 13.

FC Basel 1893 scored 407443

FC Luzern conceded 622448

FC Basel 1893 score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); FC Luzern have let in 2 there.

FC Luzern scored 502645

FC Basel 1893 conceded 633147

FC Luzern score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); FC Basel 1893 have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

FC Basel 1893

at Grasshoppers28 Nov · Super Leaguewin 39%
vs Servette FC6 Dec · Super Leaguewin 34%
at FC Sion13 Dec · Super Leaguewin 18%
vs FC Zurich19 Dec · Super Leaguewin 42%
vs FC Vaduz16 Jan · Super Leaguewin 42%

FC Luzern

vs FC Lugano29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 25%
at FC Thun5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 33%
vs Servette FC13 Dec · Super Leaguewin 37%
at Grasshoppers19 Dec · Super Leaguewin 43%
vs FC St. Gallen17 Jan · Super Leaguewin 35%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.