GKS Katowice
vs
Lech Poznan
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: GKS Katowice 1–2 Lech Poznan
The model makes it 31% GKS Katowice, 25% draw, 44% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: GKS Katowice 1.52, Lech Poznan 1.89.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Lech Poznan: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. GKS Katowice's rating is built from 48 Ekstraklasa matches and Lech Poznan's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.
Key facts
- GKS Katowice are 8th on 21 points from 14 games; Lech Poznan are top on 32 points from 13 games — Ekstraklasa.
- GKS Katowice have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Jagiellonia.
- Lech Poznan are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Zaglebie Lubin.
- Last 4 meetings: Lech Poznan 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Lech Poznan 3–3 GKS Katowice.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: GKS Katowice vs Lech Poznan
Has the model earned this number?
Lech Poznan at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into GKS Katowice vs Lech Poznan
GKS Katowice
Ekstraklasa
- L0-1away to Jagiellonia8 November 2026
- W3-2Widzew Łódź31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Korona Kielce24 October 2026
- L0-1Pogon Szczecin17 October 2026
- W2-1Wieczysta Kraków12 October 2026
Lech Poznan
Ekstraklasa
- D2-2Zaglebie Lubin8 November 2026
- W3-1Wisla Krakow31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Legia Warszawa25 October 2026
- W6-1Korona Kielce18 October 2026
- W4-1away to Slask Wroclaw10 October 2026
What these results say
- GKS Katowice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 21 |
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 13 | +21 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
GKS Katowice
Chance to finish in the top two · 5% today
Lech Poznan
Chance to win the league · 78% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: GKS Katowice vs Lech Poznan
- 12 April 2026Lech Poznan 3–3 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 5 October 2025GKS Katowice 0–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 18 May 2025GKS Katowice 2–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 23 November 2024Lech Poznan 2–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: GKS Katowice and Lech Poznan
GKS Katowice
GoalsAssists
- I. Shkurin82
- B. Nowak78
Lech Poznan
GoalsAssists
- P. Wålemark73
- Pablo Rodríguez67
- A. Sayyadmanesh50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives GKS Katowice a 1.2% chance of the title and Lech Poznan 78.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lech Poznan the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for GKS Katowice against 1.89 for Lech Poznan. GKS Katowice's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.27/1.01 for Lech Poznan.
How the model reaches 44% for Lech Poznan to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Lech Poznan to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, GKS Katowice's ratings add 6 points and Lech Poznan's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- GKS Katowice's ratings36%+6
- Lech Poznan's ratings44%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
GKS Katowice at home · Lech Poznan away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
GKS KatowiceLech Poznan
GKS Katowice are 8th after 14 Ekstraklasa matches (between 2nd and 13th so far); Lech Poznan are 1st after 13 (between 1st and 6th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: GKS Katowice 14, Lech Poznan 13.
GKS Katowice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Lech Poznan have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
GKS Katowice
- at Slask Wroclaw28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 42%
- vs Legia Warszawa5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 41%
- vs Wisla Krakow12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 46%
- at Radomiak Radom30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 42%
- at Wieczysta Kraków6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 42%
Lech Poznan
- at Union St. Gilloise26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 21%
- vs Pogon Szczecin28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 62%
- at Motor Lublin5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 53%
- vs Ferencvarosi TC10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 54%
- at Cracovia Krakow12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 56%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.