Regular Season - 14 · 22 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

Lausanne vs FC Vaduz Super League prediction

Stade de la Tuiliere, Lausanne

Our model says: Lausanne 1–2 FC Vaduz

The model makes it 33% Lausanne, 26% draw, 41% FC Vaduz — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Lausanne 1.48, FC Vaduz 1.68.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to FC Vaduz: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 8 November 2026 · updated 12 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Lausanne's rating is built from 51 Swiss Super League matches and FC Vaduz's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 538 matches.

Key facts

Lausanne are bottom on 7 points from 13 games; FC Vaduz are 11th on 10 points from 13 games — Super League.
Lausanne have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Grasshoppers.
FC Vaduz are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to FC Sion.
Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended FC Vaduz 3–1 Lausanne.

More Swiss Super League predictions

All Swiss Super League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Lausanne vs FC Vaduz

63%

Both teams to score

61%

Over 2.5 goals

39%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Lausanne win Draw FC Vaduz win

1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
2–27%
0–26%
1–06%

Scores read Lausanne first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

FC Vaduz at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Lausanne vs FC Vaduz

Lausanne

Super League

D1-1away to Grasshoppers7 November 2026
L4-5FC Thun1 November 2026
L0-1away to FC Sion25 October 2026
L0-1away to FC St. Gallen11 October 2026
L0-4FC Lugano20 September 2026

FC Vaduz

Super League

L0-4FC Sion7 November 2026
D2-2away to Grasshoppers31 October 2026
L1-2away to Servette FC24 October 2026
W3-0FC Basel 189311 October 2026
L1-2FC Thun20 September 2026

What these results say

Lausanne did not win any of these 5 matches.
Lausanne conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Every one of these 5 matches for FC Vaduz had three goals or more.
FC Vaduz failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
FC Vaduz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
12	Lausanne	13	1	4	8	12	23	-11	7
11	FC Vaduz	13	3	1	9	24	29	-5	10

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Lausanne

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 95% today

Win 91%

Draw 97%

Defeat 99%

FC Vaduz

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 55% today

Win 43%

Draw 60%

Defeat 68%

From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Lausanne vs FC Vaduz

5 September 2026FC Vaduz 3–1 LausanneSuper League
23 April 2023FC Vaduz 1–1 LausanneChallenge League
5 March 2023Lausanne 0–0 FC VaduzChallenge League
20 November 2022FC Vaduz 1–0 LausanneChallenge League
28 August 2022Lausanne 3–1 FC VaduzChallenge League
18 April 2021Lausanne 2–1 FC VaduzSuper League

Leading scorers: Lausanne and FC Vaduz

Lausanne

No player in Super League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

FC Vaduz

GoalsAssists

M. Monsberger61
L. Dalipi59
Juan Cabrera50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Lausanne FC Vaduz

0.46 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.73

1.52 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.72

1.48 Model expected goals (this match) 1.68

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Vaduz the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lausanne against 1.68 for FC Vaduz. Lausanne's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.72 for FC Vaduz.

How the model reaches 41% for FC Vaduz to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for FC Vaduz to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Lausanne's ratings add 4 points and FC Vaduz's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 41%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage32%−5
Both sides at this match's level31%−1
Lausanne's ratings35%+4
FC Vaduz's ratings41%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

LausanneModelFC Vaduz

Over 1.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

83%

model, this match

100%

10 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

61%

model, this match

100%

10 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

39%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Both teams score

40%

4 of 10 games

63%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

LausanneFC Vaduz

13Matches13

1W 4D 8LRecord3W 1D 9L

12 0.9 per gameGoals scored24 1.8 per game

23 1.8 per gameGoals conceded29 2.2 per game

2 of 13Clean sheets1 of 13

6 of 13Failed to score1 of 13

1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1

36 2.8 per gameYellow cards29 2.2 per game

1Red cards1

4-2-3-1 5×Usual shape4-3-1-2 10×

Lausanne at home · FC Vaduz away

6Played7

0W 2D 4LRecord0W 1D 6L

9–16Goals for – against10–17

0 of 6Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, Super League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

LausanneFC Vaduz

Lausanne are 12th after 13 Super League matches (between 1st and 12th so far); FC Vaduz are 11th after 13 (between 8th and 12th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Super League matches this season: Lausanne 13, FC Vaduz 13.

Lausanne scored 013225

FC Vaduz conceded 546518

Lausanne score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); FC Vaduz have let in 8 there.

FC Vaduz scored 534642

Lausanne conceded 232833

FC Vaduz score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Lausanne have let in 8 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Lausanne

at Servette FC28 Nov · Super Leaguewin 19%
vs FC Sion6 Dec · Super Leaguewin 21%
at BSC Young Boys12 Dec · Super Leaguewin 13%
vs FC St. Gallen19 Dec · Super Leaguewin 25%
at FC Zurich17 Jan · Super Leaguewin 23%

FC Vaduz

vs FC Zurich28 Nov · Super Leaguewin 45%
vs BSC Young Boys5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 31%
at FC St. Gallen12 Dec · Super Leaguewin 23%
vs FC Lugano20 Dec · Super Leaguewin 24%
at FC Basel 189316 Jan · Super Leaguewin 33%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.