Wisla Krakow
vs
Cracovia Krakow
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Wisla Krakow 1–0 Cracovia Krakow
The model makes it 50% Wisla Krakow, 27% draw, 23% Cracovia Krakow — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Wisla Krakow 1.65, Cracovia Krakow 0.96.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to Wisla Krakow: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Wisla Krakow's rating is built from 11 Ekstraklasa matches and Cracovia Krakow's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 711 matches.
Key facts
- Wisla Krakow are 7th on 18 points from 11 games; Cracovia Krakow are 12th on 12 points from 11 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Wisla Krakow have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Widzew Łódź.
- Cracovia Krakow have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Legia Warszawa.
- Last 6 meetings: Wisla Krakow 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 1 May 2022, ended Cracovia Krakow 0–0 Wisla Krakow.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wisla Krakow at 50% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow
Wisla Krakow
Ekstraklasa
- D0-0away to Widzew Łódź16 October 2026
- L0-2away to Legia Warszawa11 October 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw18 September 2026
- W2-0Jagiellonia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce5 September 2026
Cracovia Krakow
Ekstraklasa
- D1-1Legia Warszawa17 October 2026
- W3-1Zaglebie Lubin10 October 2026
- L2-3away to GKS Katowice19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Wisla Plock13 September 2026
- L0-1Gornik Zabrze6 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Wisla Krakow had two goals or fewer.
- Cracovia Krakow conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cracovia Krakow failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cracovia Krakow scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Wisla Krakow | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 18 |
| 12 | Cracovia Krakow | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow
- 1 May 2022Cracovia Krakow 0–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 7 November 2021Wisla Krakow 1–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 24 April 2021Wisla Krakow 0–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 4 December 2020Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 3 March 2020Cracovia Krakow 0–2 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 29 September 2019Wisla Krakow 0–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow
Wisla Krakow
GoalsAssists
- Ángel Rodado41
Cracovia Krakow
GoalsAssists
- A. Hasić52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wisla Krakow carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.55 for Cracovia Krakow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Wisla Krakow and 0.96 for Cracovia Krakow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wisla Krakow rate 0.81 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cracovia Krakow rate 0.67 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wisla Krakow a 1.1% chance of the title and Cracovia Krakow 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wisla Krakow the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Wisla Krakow against 0.96 for Cracovia Krakow. Wisla Krakow's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.23 for Cracovia Krakow.
How the model reaches 50% for Wisla Krakow to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Wisla Krakow to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Wisla Krakow's ratings take away 10 points and Cracovia Krakow's ratings add 16 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Wisla Krakow's ratings34%−10
- Cracovia Krakow's ratings50%+16
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Wisla Krakow at home · Cracovia Krakow away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Wisla KrakowCracovia Krakow
Wisla Krakow are 7th after 11 Ekstraklasa matches (between 2nd and 8th so far); Cracovia Krakow are 12th after 11 (between 4th and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Wisla Krakow 11, Cracovia Krakow 11.
Wisla Krakow score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Cracovia Krakow have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Wisla Krakow
- at Radomiak Radom21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 44%
- vs Motor Lublin28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 51%
- at Zaglebie Lubin5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 32%
Cracovia Krakow
- vs Jagiellonia21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 38%
- at Korona Kielce28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 29%
- vs Widzew Łódź5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.