Slask Wroclaw
vs
Piast Gliwice
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Slask Wroclaw 1–2 Piast Gliwice
The model makes it 35% Slask Wroclaw, 25% draw, 40% Piast Gliwice — fair odds of 2.86, 4.00 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Slask Wroclaw 1.60, Piast Gliwice 1.73.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Piast Gliwice: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Slask Wroclaw's rating is built from 11 Ekstraklasa matches and Piast Gliwice's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 711 matches.
Key facts
- Slask Wroclaw are 17th on 6 points from 11 games; Piast Gliwice are 8th on 17 points from 11 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Slask Wroclaw have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Motor Lublin.
- Piast Gliwice have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Gornik Zabrze.
- Last 6 meetings: Piast Gliwice 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 February 2025, ended Slask Wroclaw 1–3 Piast Gliwice.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Piast Gliwice at 40% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice
Slask Wroclaw
Ekstraklasa
- L2-3away to Motor Lublin17 October 2026
- L1-4Lech Poznan10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow18 September 2026
- L1-2Korona Kielce12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Jagiellonia6 September 2026
Piast Gliwice
Ekstraklasa
- D1-1away to Gornik Zabrze18 October 2026
- W2-1Widzew Łódź11 October 2026
- L1-2Pogon Szczecin20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Radomiak Radom14 September 2026
- W3-0GKS Katowice4 September 2026
What these results say
- Slask Wroclaw did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Slask Wroclaw scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Slask Wroclaw conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Piast Gliwice scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 6 |
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Slask Wroclaw vs Piast Gliwice
- 3 February 2025Slask Wroclaw 1–3 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 3 December 2024Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Piast GliwiceCup
- 28 July 2024Piast Gliwice 2–0 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 30 March 2024Piast Gliwice 2–2 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 23 September 2023Slask Wroclaw 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 6 April 2023Slask Wroclaw 0–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Slask Wroclaw and Piast Gliwice
Slask Wroclaw
GoalsAssists
- P. Samiec-Talar45
Piast Gliwice
GoalsAssists
- Leandro Sanca41
- Hugo Vallejo40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Slask Wroclaw carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.66 for Piast Gliwice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.73 for Piast Gliwice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slask Wroclaw rate 0.77 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Piast Gliwice rate 0.86 and 1.25.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Slask Wroclaw a 0% chance of the title and Piast Gliwice 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Piast Gliwice the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw against 1.73 for Piast Gliwice. Slask Wroclaw's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.25 for Piast Gliwice.
How the model reaches 40% for Piast Gliwice to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Piast Gliwice to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Slask Wroclaw's ratings add 21 points and Piast Gliwice's ratings take away 11 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Slask Wroclaw's ratings51%+21
- Piast Gliwice's ratings40%−11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Slask Wroclaw at home · Piast Gliwice away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Slask WroclawPiast Gliwice
Slask Wroclaw are 17th after 11 Ekstraklasa matches (between 8th and 17th so far); Piast Gliwice are 8th after 11 (between 6th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Slask Wroclaw 11, Piast Gliwice 11.
Slask Wroclaw score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Piast Gliwice have let in 3 there.
Piast Gliwice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Slask Wroclaw have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Slask Wroclaw
- at Pogon Szczecin21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 17%
- vs GKS Katowice28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- at Wisla Plock5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 30%
Piast Gliwice
- vs Korona Kielce21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 50%
- at Raków Częstochowa28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 33%
- vs Jagiellonia5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.