Legia Warszawa
vs
Raków Częstochowa
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Legia Warszawa 2–1 Raków Częstochowa
The model makes it 57% Legia Warszawa, 23% draw, 20% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Legia Warszawa 2.13, Raków Częstochowa 1.03.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to Legia Warszawa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Legia Warszawa's rating is built from 45 Ekstraklasa matches and Raków Częstochowa's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 711 matches.
Key facts
- Legia Warszawa are 3rd on 23 points from 11 games; Raków Częstochowa are bottom on 6 points from 11 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Legia Warszawa are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Cracovia Krakow.
- Raków Częstochowa have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Wieczysta Kraków.
- Last 6 meetings: Raków Częstochowa 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended Legia Warszawa 1–1 Raków Częstochowa.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Legia Warszawa at 57% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa
Legia Warszawa
Ekstraklasa
- D1-1away to Cracovia Krakow17 October 2026
- W2-0Wisla Krakow11 October 2026
- W3-1away to Jagiellonia20 September 2026
- D1-1Widzew Łódź13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Motor Lublin5 September 2026
Raków Częstochowa
Ekstraklasa
- W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków16 October 2026
- L1-4GKS Katowice9 October 2026
- L2-3away to Korona Kielce19 September 2026
- L2-3Zaglebie Lubin15 September 2026
- W2-1Motor Lublin11 September 2026
What these results say
- Legia Warszawa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Raków Częstochowa had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 23 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa
- 22 March 2026Legia Warszawa 1–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 20 September 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 16 March 2025Raków Częstochowa 3–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 15 September 2024Legia Warszawa 0–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 13 April 2024Raków Częstochowa 1–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 8 October 2023Legia Warszawa 1–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa
Legia Warszawa
GoalsAssists
- R. Augustyniak42
- R. Adamski40
- Ł. Zjawiński40
Raków Częstochowa
GoalsAssists
- P. Makuch61
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Legia Warszawa carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.61 for Raków Częstochowa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.13 goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.03 for Raków Częstochowa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Legia Warszawa rate 0.89 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Raków Częstochowa rate 0.88 and 1.44.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Legia Warszawa a 12.6% chance of the title and Raków Częstochowa 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Legia Warszawa the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Legia Warszawa against 1.03 for Raków Częstochowa. Legia Warszawa's attack/defence rating is 0.89/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.44 for Raków Częstochowa.
How the model reaches 57% for Legia Warszawa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Legia Warszawa to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Legia Warszawa's ratings take away 2 points and Raków Częstochowa's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Legia Warszawa's ratings42%−2
- Raków Częstochowa's ratings57%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Legia Warszawa at home · Raków Częstochowa away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Legia WarszawaRaków Częstochowa
Legia Warszawa are 3rd after 11 Ekstraklasa matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Raków Częstochowa are 18th after 11 (between 14th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Legia Warszawa 11, Raków Częstochowa 11.
Legia Warszawa score most often in the 16–30 minute window (7 goals); Raków Częstochowa have let in 1 there.
Raków Częstochowa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Legia Warszawa have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Legia Warszawa
- at Wisla Plock21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 46%
- vs Wieczysta Kraków28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 59%
- at GKS Katowice5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 34%
Raków Częstochowa
- vs Widzew Łódź21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 43%
- vs Piast Gliwice28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 42%
- at Radomiak Radom5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.