Piast Gliwice
vs
Cracovia Krakow
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Piast Gliwice 2–1 Cracovia Krakow
The model makes it 49% Piast Gliwice, 26% draw, 25% Cracovia Krakow — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Piast Gliwice 1.75, Cracovia Krakow 1.09.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Piast Gliwice are 7th on 16 points from 10 games; Cracovia Krakow are 11th on 11 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Piast Gliwice have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Widzew Łódź.
- Cracovia Krakow have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Zaglebie Lubin.
- Last 6 meetings: Piast Gliwice 1 win to 0, 5 draws; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended Cracovia Krakow 2–3 Piast Gliwice.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Piast Gliwice at 49% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
- W2-1Widzew Łódź11 October 2026
- L1-2Pogon Szczecin20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Radomiak Radom14 September 2026
- W3-0GKS Katowice4 September 2026
- W2-0away to Motor Lublin29 August 2026
Cracovia Krakow
- W3-1Zaglebie Lubin10 October 2026
- L2-3away to GKS Katowice19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Wisla Plock13 September 2026
- L0-1Gornik Zabrze6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Radomiak Radom29 August 2026
What these results say
- Piast Gliwice scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Piast Gliwice won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cracovia Krakow conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cracovia Krakow failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cracovia Krakow scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 16 |
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Piast Gliwice
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
Cracovia Krakow
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow
- 27 February 2026Cracovia Krakow 2–3 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 24 August 2025Piast Gliwice 0–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 8 December 2024Piast Gliwice 0–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 21 July 2024Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 23 February 2024Piast Gliwice 0–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 21 August 2023Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
GoalsAssists
- Leandro Sanca41
Cracovia Krakow
GoalsAssists
- A. Hasić52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Piast Gliwice carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.55 for Cracovia Krakow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.09 for Cracovia Krakow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Piast Gliwice rate 0.85 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cracovia Krakow rate 0.67 and 1.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Piast Gliwice a 0.8% chance of the title and Cracovia Krakow 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Piast Gliwice the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Piast Gliwice against 1.09 for Cracovia Krakow. Piast Gliwice's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.24 for Cracovia Krakow.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Piast Gliwice at home · Cracovia Krakow away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Piast GliwiceCracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice are 5th after 10 Ekstraklasa matches (between 5th and 18th so far); Cracovia Krakow are 11th after 10 (between 4th and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Piast Gliwice 10, Cracovia Krakow 10.
Piast Gliwice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Cracovia Krakow have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Piast Gliwice
- vs Gornik Zabrze27 Oct · Cupwin 34%
- at Wisla Plock31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 38%
- at Slask Wroclaw7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 39%
- vs Korona Kielce21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 45%
- at Raków Częstochowa28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 34%
Cracovia Krakow
- vs Motor Lublin31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 42%
- at Wisla Krakow7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 23%
- vs Jagiellonia21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 37%
- at Korona Kielce28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.