Wisla Krakow
vs
Raków Częstochowa
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Wisla Krakow 2–1 Raków Częstochowa
The model makes it 52% Wisla Krakow, 23% draw, 25% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Wisla Krakow 2.15, Raków Częstochowa 1.32.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Wisla Krakow are 6th on 17 points from 10 games; Raków Częstochowa are bottom on 3 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Wisla Krakow have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Legia Warszawa.
- Raków Częstochowa are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to GKS Katowice.
- Last 6 meetings: Raków Częstochowa 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 February 2022, ended Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Wisla Krakow.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wisla Krakow at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa
Wisla Krakow
- L0-2away to Legia Warszawa11 October 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw18 September 2026
- W2-0Jagiellonia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce5 September 2026
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków29 August 2026
Raków Częstochowa
- L1-4GKS Katowice9 October 2026
- L2-3away to Korona Kielce19 September 2026
- L2-3Zaglebie Lubin15 September 2026
- W2-1Motor Lublin11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lech Poznan6 September 2026
What these results say
- Wisla Krakow scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Wisla Krakow had two goals or fewer.
- Raków Częstochowa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Wisla Krakow | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Wisla Krakow
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
Raków Częstochowa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa
- 6 February 2022Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 8 August 2021Wisla Krakow 1–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 9 April 2021Wisla Krakow 1–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 8 November 2020Raków Częstochowa 0–0 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 20 June 2020Raków Częstochowa 3–1 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 10 June 2020Wisla Krakow 3–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa
Wisla Krakow
GoalsAssists
- Ángel Rodado41
Raków Częstochowa
GoalsAssists
- P. Makuch60
- M. Emreli31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wisla Krakow carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.59 for Raków Częstochowa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.15 goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.32 for Raków Częstochowa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wisla Krakow rate 0.87 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Raków Częstochowa rate 0.87 and 1.49.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wisla Krakow a 2.3% chance of the title and Raków Częstochowa 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wisla Krakow the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Wisla Krakow against 1.32 for Raków Częstochowa. Wisla Krakow's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.49 for Raków Częstochowa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Wisla Krakow at home · Raków Częstochowa away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Wisla KrakowRaków Częstochowa
Wisla Krakow are 5th after 10 Ekstraklasa matches (between 2nd and 7th so far); Raków Częstochowa are 18th after 10 (between 14th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Wisla Krakow 10, Raków Częstochowa 10.
Wisla Krakow score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Raków Częstochowa have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Wisla Krakow
- at Lech Poznan31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 19%
- vs Cracovia Krakow7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 51%
- at Radomiak Radom21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 44%
- vs Motor Lublin28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 52%
Raków Częstochowa
- at Motor Lublin27 Oct · Cupwin 31%
- vs Pogon Szczecin31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- at Legia Warszawa7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 18%
- vs Widzew Łódź21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 42%
- vs Piast Gliwice28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.