Korona Kielce
vs
GKS Katowice
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Korona Kielce 1–2 GKS Katowice
The model makes it 34% Korona Kielce, 28% draw, 38% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Korona Kielce 1.33, GKS Katowice 1.42.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to GKS Katowice: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Korona Kielce are 8th on 15 points from 10 games; GKS Katowice are 5th on 18 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Korona Kielce have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Pogon Szczecin.
- GKS Katowice are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Wieczysta Kraków.
- Last 6 meetings: GKS Katowice 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Korona Kielce 1–1 GKS Katowice.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts GKS Katowice at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice
Korona Kielce
- L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin11 October 2026
- W3-2Raków Częstochowa19 September 2026
- L0-2Gornik Zabrze15 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slask Wroclaw12 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Krakow5 September 2026
GKS Katowice
- W2-1Wieczysta Kraków12 October 2026
- W4-1away to Raków Częstochowa9 October 2026
- W3-2Cracovia Krakow19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zaglebie Lubin12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Piast Gliwice4 September 2026
What these results say
- Korona Kielce conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- GKS Katowice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for GKS Katowice had three goals or more.
- GKS Katowice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 15 | +7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Korona Kielce
Chance to finish in the top four · 6% today
GKS Katowice
Chance to finish in the top four · 44% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs GKS Katowice
- 25 April 2026Korona Kielce 1–1 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 25 October 2025GKS Katowice 1–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 5 May 2025Korona Kielce 2–1 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 4 November 2024GKS Katowice 1–2 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 10 December 2022Korona Kielce 0–1 GKS KatowiceFriendlies Clubs
- 14 May 2022Korona Kielce 1–2 GKS KatowiceI Liga
Leading scorers: Korona Kielce and GKS Katowice
Korona Kielce
GoalsAssists
- M. Stępiński60
GKS Katowice
GoalsAssists
- I. Shkurin81
- B. Nowak48
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Korona Kielce carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.77 for GKS Katowice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Korona Kielce and 1.42 for GKS Katowice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Korona Kielce rate 0.68 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GKS Katowice rate 1.00 and 1.18.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Korona Kielce a 0.2% chance of the title and GKS Katowice 5.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GKS Katowice the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Korona Kielce against 1.42 for GKS Katowice. Korona Kielce's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.18 for GKS Katowice.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Korona Kielce at home · GKS Katowice away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Korona KielceGKS Katowice
Korona Kielce are 8th after 10 Ekstraklasa matches (between 4th and 18th so far); GKS Katowice are 5th after 10 (between 5th and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Korona Kielce 10, GKS Katowice 10.
Korona Kielce score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); GKS Katowice have let in 0 there.
GKS Katowice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Korona Kielce have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Korona Kielce
- at Zaglebie Lubin31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 29%
- vs Radomiak Radom7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 52%
- at Piast Gliwice21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 27%
- vs Cracovia Krakow28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 45%
GKS Katowice
- at Górnik Łęczna27 Oct · Cupwin 65%
- vs Widzew Łódź31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 53%
- at Jagiellonia7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 36%
- vs Lech Poznan21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 35%
- at Slask Wroclaw28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.