Widzew Łódź
vs
Pogon Szczecin
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Widzew Łódź 0–1 Pogon Szczecin
The model makes it 32% Widzew Łódź, 32% draw, 36% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 3.13, 3.13 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Widzew Łódź 0.99, Pogon Szczecin 1.07.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Edge to Pogon Szczecin: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Widzew Łódź's rating is built from 46 Ekstraklasa matches and Pogon Szczecin's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 711 matches.
Key facts
- Widzew Łódź are 14th on 11 points from 12 games; Pogon Szczecin are 4th on 21 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Widzew Łódź have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Gornik Zabrze.
- Pogon Szczecin are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to GKS Katowice.
- Last 6 meetings: Pogon Szczecin 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Widzew Łódź.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pogon Szczecin at 36% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin
Widzew Łódź
Ekstraklasa
- D1-1Gornik Zabrze23 October 2026
- D0-0Wisla Krakow16 October 2026
- L1-2away to Piast Gliwice11 October 2026
- D2-2Wieczysta Kraków18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Legia Warszawa13 September 2026
Pogon Szczecin
Ekstraklasa
- W1-0away to GKS Katowice17 October 2026
- W2-0Korona Kielce11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Piast Gliwice20 September 2026
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków13 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Plock7 September 2026
What these results say
- Widzew Łódź did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Widzew Łódź scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Widzew Łódź conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 11 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin
- 28 February 2026Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 2 December 2025Pogon Szczecin 0–1 Widzew ŁódźCup
- 22 August 2025Widzew Łódź 1–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 22 February 2025Widzew Łódź 0–4 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 17 August 2024Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 16 December 2023Widzew Łódź 1–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin
Widzew Łódź
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez91
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Widzew Łódź carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.79 for Pogon Szczecin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.99 goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.07 for Pogon Szczecin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Widzew Łódź rate 0.66 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pogon Szczecin rate 0.78 and 0.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Widzew Łódź a 0% chance of the title and Pogon Szczecin 5.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pogon Szczecin the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Widzew Łódź against 1.07 for Pogon Szczecin. Widzew Łódź's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/0.9 for Pogon Szczecin.
How the model reaches 36% for Pogon Szczecin to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Pogon Szczecin to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Widzew Łódź's ratings add 11 points and Pogon Szczecin's ratings take away 5 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Widzew Łódź's ratings41%+11
- Pogon Szczecin's ratings36%−5
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Widzew Łódź at home · Pogon Szczecin away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Widzew ŁódźPogon Szczecin
Widzew Łódź are 14th after 12 Ekstraklasa matches (between 7th and 14th so far); Pogon Szczecin are 4th after 10 (between 2nd and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Widzew Łódź 12, Pogon Szczecin 10.
Pogon Szczecin score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Widzew Łódź have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Widzew Łódź
- at Raków Częstochowa21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- vs Zaglebie Lubin28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 39%
- at Cracovia Krakow5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 31%
- at Motor Lublin12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 32%
Pogon Szczecin
- vs Slask Wroclaw21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 59%
- at Lech Poznan28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 21%
- vs Gornik Zabrze5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.