Motor Lublin
vs
Wisla Plock
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Motor Lublin 1–0 Wisla Plock
The model makes it 47% Motor Lublin, 27% draw, 26% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Motor Lublin 1.67, Wisla Plock 1.09.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Motor Lublin's rating is built from 46 Ekstraklasa matches and Wisla Plock's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 711 matches.
Key facts
- Motor Lublin are 11th on 13 points from 12 games; Wisla Plock are 10th on 14 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Motor Lublin are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Zaglebie Lubin.
- Wisla Plock have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Radomiak Radom.
- Last 6 meetings: Motor Lublin 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Wisla Plock 0–4 Motor Lublin.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Motor Lublin at 47% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock
Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa
- D2-2Zaglebie Lubin23 October 2026
- W3-2Slask Wroclaw17 October 2026
- W3-2away to Radomiak Radom12 October 2026
- D0-0Gornik Zabrze19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Raków Częstochowa11 September 2026
Wisla Plock
Ekstraklasa
- W1-0Radomiak Radom19 October 2026
- L0-3away to Wieczysta Kraków9 October 2026
- W2-0away to Zaglebie Lubin20 September 2026
- W3-1Cracovia Krakow13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Pogon Szczecin7 September 2026
What these results say
- Motor Lublin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Motor Lublin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Motor Lublin had three goals or more.
- Wisla Plock scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 13 |
| 10 | Wisla Plock | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock
- 10 May 2026Wisla Plock 0–4 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 8 November 2025Motor Lublin 1–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 11 July 2025Motor Lublin 2–2 Wisla PlockFriendlies Clubs
- 10 January 2025Motor Lublin 2–1 Wisla PlockFriendlies Clubs
- 5 May 2024Wisla Plock 1–0 Motor LublinI Liga
- 5 November 2023Motor Lublin 2–2 Wisla PlockI Liga
Leading scorers: Motor Lublin and Wisla Plock
Motor Lublin
GoalsAssists
- K. Czubak60
Wisla Plock
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Motor Lublin carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.49 for Wisla Plock. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Motor Lublin and 1.09 for Wisla Plock. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Motor Lublin rate 0.81 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wisla Plock rate 0.59 and 1.24.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Wisla Plock, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Motor Lublin the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Motor Lublin against 1.09 for Wisla Plock. Motor Lublin's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.24 for Wisla Plock.
How the model reaches 47% for Motor Lublin to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Motor Lublin to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Motor Lublin's ratings take away 15 points and Wisla Plock's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Motor Lublin's ratings29%−15
- Wisla Plock's ratings47%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Motor Lublin at home · Wisla Plock away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Motor LublinWisla Plock
Motor Lublin are 11th after 12 Ekstraklasa matches (between 6th and 16th so far); Wisla Plock are 10th after 10 (between 1st and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Motor Lublin 12, Wisla Plock 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Motor Lublin
- at Wieczysta Kraków21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- at Wisla Krakow28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 24%
- vs Lech Poznan5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 23%
- vs Widzew Łódź12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 40%
Wisla Plock
- vs Legia Warszawa21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 25%
- at Gornik Zabrze28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 16%
- vs Slask Wroclaw5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.