Novi Pazar
vs
Mladost Lucani
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Novi Pazar 1–0 Mladost Lucani
The model makes it 48% Novi Pazar, 28% draw, 24% Mladost Lucani — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Novi Pazar 1.57, Mladost Lucani 0.96.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Novi Pazar: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Novi Pazar's rating is built from 50 Serbian SuperLiga matches and Mladost Lucani's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 682 matches.
Key facts
- Novi Pazar are 8th on 16 points from 13 games; Mladost Lucani are 7th on 17 points from 12 games — Super Liga.
- Novi Pazar have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Radnicki NIS.
- Mladost Lucani have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to FK Crvena Zvezda.
- Last 6 meetings: Novi Pazar 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 26 July 2026, ended Mladost Lucani 0–0 Novi Pazar.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Novi Pazar at 48% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani
Novi Pazar
Super Liga
- W2-0away to Radnicki NIS23 October 2026
- L1-2IMT Novi Beograd18 October 2026
- L0-1away to FK Partizan11 October 2026
- D2-2Zemun19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cukaricki12 September 2026
Mladost Lucani
Super Liga
- L1-5away to FK Crvena Zvezda18 October 2026
- D0-0OFK Beograd12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Macva20 September 2026
- L0-5away to Radnicki 192312 September 2026
- W1-0Radnicki NIS5 September 2026
What these results say
- Novi Pazar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Novi Pazar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Novi Pazar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Mladost Lucani | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani
- 26 July 2026Mladost Lucani 0–0 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 28 June 2026Mladost Lucani 3–1 Novi PazarFriendlies Clubs
- 9 March 2026Mladost Lucani 0–2 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 4 October 2025Novi Pazar 1–0 Mladost LucaniSuper Liga
- 8 July 2025Novi Pazar 1–1 Mladost LucaniFriendlies Clubs
- 28 April 2025Mladost Lucani 1–1 Novi PazarSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Novi Pazar and Mladost Lucani
Novi Pazar
GoalsAssists
- K. Dixon32
Mladost Lucani
GoalsAssists
- Vasil Tasovski40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Novi Pazar carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.12 for Mladost Lucani. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Novi Pazar and 0.96 for Mladost Lucani. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Novi Pazar rate 0.51 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mladost Lucani rate 0.44 and 1.92.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Mladost Lucani, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Novi Pazar the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Novi Pazar against 0.96 for Mladost Lucani. Novi Pazar's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.92 for Mladost Lucani.
How the model reaches 48% for Novi Pazar to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Novi Pazar to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Novi Pazar's ratings take away 27 points and Mladost Lucani's ratings add 33 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- Novi Pazar's ratings15%−27
- Mladost Lucani's ratings48%+33
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Novi Pazar at home · Mladost Lucani away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Novi Pazar 13, Mladost Lucani 12.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Novi Pazar
- at OFK Beograd21 Nov · Super Ligawin 32%
- vs FK Crvena Zvezda28 Nov · Super Ligawin 16%
- at Vojvodina6 Dec · Super Ligawin 16%
- vs Radnik Surdulica6 Feb · Super Ligawin 40%
Mladost Lucani
- vs Železničar Pančevo21 Nov · Super Ligawin 23%
- at Cukaricki28 Nov · Super Ligawin 25%
- vs Zemun6 Dec · Super Ligawin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.