Pogon Szczecin
vs
Radomiak Radom
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Pogon Szczecin 2–0 Radomiak Radom
The model makes it 61% Pogon Szczecin, 23% draw, 16% Radomiak Radom — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Pogon Szczecin 2.06, Radomiak Radom 0.82.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Pogon Szczecin are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Pogon Szczecin are 4th on 18 points from 9 games; Radomiak Radom are 16th on 8 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Pogon Szczecin are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Korona Kielce.
- Radomiak Radom are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Motor Lublin.
- Last 6 meetings: Radomiak Radom 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 December 2025, ended Pogon Szczecin 2–2 Radomiak Radom.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pogon Szczecin at 61% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom
Pogon Szczecin
- W2-0Korona Kielce11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Piast Gliwice20 September 2026
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków13 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Plock7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Zaglebie Lubin29 August 2026
Radomiak Radom
- L2-3Motor Lublin12 October 2026
- L1-5away to Lech Poznan20 September 2026
- L0-2Piast Gliwice14 September 2026
- D0-0away to Widzew Łódź5 September 2026
- W2-1Cracovia Krakow29 August 2026
What these results say
- Pogon Szczecin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Pogon Szczecin had two goals or fewer.
- Radomiak Radom failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radomiak Radom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 18 |
| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Pogon Szczecin
Chance to finish in the top four · 41% today
Radomiak Radom
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 60% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom
- 6 December 2025Pogon Szczecin 2–2 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 20 July 2025Radomiak Radom 5–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 10 May 2025Radomiak Radom 2–0 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 8 November 2024Pogon Szczecin 0–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 16 February 2024Radomiak Radom 0–4 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 13 August 2023Pogon Szczecin 0–2 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez81
Radomiak Radom
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Pogon Szczecin carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.42 for Radomiak Radom. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.82 for Radomiak Radom. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pogon Szczecin rate 0.79 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radomiak Radom rate 0.67 and 1.57.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pogon Szczecin a 3.2% chance of the title and Radomiak Radom 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pogon Szczecin the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin against 0.82 for Radomiak Radom. Pogon Szczecin's attack/defence rating is 0.79/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.57 for Radomiak Radom.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pogon Szczecin at home · Radomiak Radom away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Pogon SzczecinRadomiak Radom
Pogon Szczecin are 4th after 9 Ekstraklasa matches (between 2nd and 18th so far); Radomiak Radom are 16th after 10 (between 1st and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Pogon Szczecin 9, Radomiak Radom 10.
Radomiak Radom score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Pogon Szczecin have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Pogon Szczecin
- at Raków Częstochowa31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 39%
- at Widzew Łódź7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 35%
- vs Slask Wroclaw21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 58%
- at Lech Poznan28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 22%
Radomiak Radom
- vs Slask Wroclaw31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 41%
- at Korona Kielce7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 22%
- vs Wisla Krakow21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- at Jagiellonia28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.