Bromley
vs
Notts County
League One prediction
Our model says: Bromley 0–1 Notts County
The model makes it 25% Bromley, 27% draw, 48% Notts County — fair odds of 4.00, 3.70 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Bromley 1.02, Notts County 1.63.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
One-sided: Notts County are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Bromley's rating is built from 12 League One matches and Notts County's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,257 matches.
Key facts
- Bromley are 22nd on 9 points from 12 games; Notts County are 19th on 11 points from 11 games — League One.
- Bromley have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Milton Keynes Dons.
- Notts County have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Stockport County.
- Last 6 meetings: Notts County 1 win to 0, 5 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Bromley 1–1 Notts County.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bromley vs Notts County
Has the model earned this number?
Notts County at 48%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bromley vs Notts County
Bromley
League One
- L1-4away to Milton Keynes Dons27 October 2026
- D1-1Peterborough24 October 2026
- L0-4Leicester20 October 2026
- L0-1away to Stockport County17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Mansfield Town10 October 2026
Notts County
League One
- D1-1Stockport County24 October 2026
- W2-0Sheffield Wednesday20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Wycombe17 October 2026
- L1-2Oxford United10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Reading19 September 2026
What these results say
- Bromley did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bromley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Notts County failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Notts County conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Notts County had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bromley | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 30 | -19 | 9 |
| 19 | Notts County | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bromley vs Notts County
- 14 February 2026Bromley 1–1 Notts CountyLeague Two
- 23 August 2025Notts County 2–2 BromleyLeague Two
- 25 January 2025Notts County 1–1 BromleyLeague Two
- 14 September 2024Bromley 2–4 Notts CountyLeague Two
- 4 March 2023Bromley 1–1 Notts CountyNational League
- 1 November 2022Notts County 1–1 BromleyNational League
The two sides
Bromley carry a model rating of 5.91 against 6.26 for Notts County.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.02 goals for Bromley and 1.63 for Notts County.
Bromley rate 0.42 in attack and 2.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Notts County rate 0.48 and 1.59.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bromley a 0% chance of the title and Notts County 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Notts County the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Bromley against 1.63 for Notts County. Bromley's attack/defence rating is 0.42/2.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.59 for Notts County.
How the model reaches 48% for Notts County to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Notts County to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Bromley's ratings add 9 points and Notts County's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Bromley's ratings40%+9
- Notts County's ratings48%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bromley at home · Notts County away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Bromley 12, Notts County 11.
Notts County score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Bromley have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Bromley
- at Reading21 Nov · League Onewin 11%
- vs Burton Albion28 Nov · League Onewin 25%
- at Plymouth1 Dec · League Onewin 12%
Notts County
- vs Stevenage21 Nov · League Onewin 37%
- at Milton Keynes Dons28 Nov · League Onewin 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.