AFC Wimbledon
vs
Blackpool
League One prediction
Our model says: AFC Wimbledon 0–1 Blackpool
The model makes it 32% AFC Wimbledon, 29% draw, 39% Blackpool — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: AFC Wimbledon 1.15, Blackpool 1.32.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.
Edge to Blackpool: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. AFC Wimbledon's rating is built from 58 League One matches and Blackpool's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,257 matches.
Key facts
- AFC Wimbledon are 17th on 13 points from 12 games; Blackpool are 20th on 11 points from 11 games — League One.
- AFC Wimbledon have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Wycombe.
- Blackpool have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Mansfield Town.
- Last 6 meetings: AFC Wimbledon 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 March 2026, ended AFC Wimbledon 4–1 Blackpool.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool
Has the model earned this number?
Blackpool at 39%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool
AFC Wimbledon
League One
- D1-1Wycombe24 October 2026
- L0-3Mansfield Town20 October 2026
- L0-5away to Sheffield Wednesday17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Plymouth10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cambridge United26 September 2026
Blackpool
League One
- L1-4Mansfield Town24 October 2026
- W2-0Milton Keynes Dons20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Leyton Orient17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Cambridge United10 October 2026
- L2-4Plymouth19 September 2026
What these results say
- AFC Wimbledon did not win any of these 5 matches.
- AFC Wimbledon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Blackpool failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Blackpool conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | AFC Wimbledon | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 13 |
| 20 | Blackpool | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool
- 11 March 2026AFC Wimbledon 4–1 BlackpoolLeague One
- 4 October 2025Blackpool 0–2 AFC WimbledonLeague One
- 6 March 2021Blackpool 1–1 AFC WimbledonLeague One
- 27 October 2020AFC Wimbledon 1–0 BlackpoolLeague One
- 22 February 2020AFC Wimbledon 0–0 BlackpoolLeague One
- 16 November 2019Blackpool 2–0 AFC WimbledonLeague One
Leading scorers: AFC Wimbledon and Blackpool
AFC Wimbledon
GoalsAssists
- J. Stockley51
Blackpool
No player in League One's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
AFC Wimbledon carry a model rating of 6.02 against 6.18 for Blackpool.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.32 for Blackpool.
AFC Wimbledon rate 0.38 in attack and 2.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Blackpool rate 0.52 and 1.98.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AFC Wimbledon, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Blackpool the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon against 1.32 for Blackpool. AFC Wimbledon's attack/defence rating is 0.38/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.98 for Blackpool.
How the model reaches 39% for Blackpool to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Blackpool to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, AFC Wimbledon's ratings add 4 points and Blackpool's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Both sides at this match's level30%−1
- AFC Wimbledon's ratings34%+4
- Blackpool's ratings39%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
AFC Wimbledon at home · Blackpool away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: AFC Wimbledon 12, Blackpool 11.
AFC Wimbledon score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Blackpool have let in 2 there.
Blackpool score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); AFC Wimbledon have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
AFC Wimbledon
- at Leyton Orient21 Nov · League Onewin 20%
- vs Barnsley28 Nov · League Onewin 34%
- at Notts County1 Dec · League Onewin 20%
Blackpool
- vs Wigan21 Nov · League Onewin 45%
- vs Leicester24 Nov · League Onewin 35%
- at Stevenage28 Nov · League Onewin 25%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.