Vitesse
vs
De Graafschap
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Vitesse 1–0 De Graafschap
The model makes it 48% Vitesse, 28% draw, 24% De Graafschap — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vitesse 1.53, De Graafschap 0.94.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Vitesse's rating is built from 50 Eerste Divisie matches and De Graafschap's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Vitesse are 9th on 17 points from 12 games; De Graafschap are 16th on 12 points from 12 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Vitesse have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Emmen.
- De Graafschap have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Waalwijk.
- Last 6 meetings: Vitesse 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended De Graafschap 1–4 Vitesse.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vitesse vs De Graafschap
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vitesse at 48% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vitesse vs De Graafschap
Vitesse
Eerste Divisie
- L0-2Emmen23 October 2026
- W1-0away to FC Eindhoven16 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC Volendam9 October 2026
- D2-2NAC Breda3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Heracles26 September 2026
De Graafschap
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1Waalwijk23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Jong Ajax19 October 2026
- W2-1Jong Utrecht9 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Eindhoven3 October 2026
- W1-0Den Bosch27 September 2026
What these results say
- Vitesse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vitesse conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vitesse had two goals or fewer.
- De Graafschap scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- De Graafschap conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for De Graafschap.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Vitesse | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitesse vs De Graafschap
- 8 March 2026De Graafschap 1–4 VitesseEerste Divisie
- 4 December 2025Vitesse 1–2 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 16 February 2025Vitesse 2–0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 29 September 2024De Graafschap 3–1 VitesseEerste Divisie
- 29 October 2019Vitesse 2–0 De GraafschapKNVB Beker
- 12 May 2019Vitesse 6–1 De GraafschapEredivisie
Leading scorers: Vitesse and De Graafschap
Vitesse
GoalsAssists
- N. Bannis103
De Graafschap
GoalsAssists
- J. Kania50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vitesse carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.25 for De Graafschap. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Vitesse and 0.94 for De Graafschap. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vitesse rate 0.52 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; De Graafschap rate 0.54 and 1.81.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vitesse a 0.2% chance of the title and De Graafschap 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vitesse the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Vitesse against 0.94 for De Graafschap. Vitesse's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.81 for De Graafschap.
How the model reaches 48% for Vitesse to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vitesse to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Vitesse's ratings take away 24 points and De Graafschap's ratings add 28 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Vitesse's ratings20%−24
- De Graafschap's ratings48%+28
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vitesse at home · De Graafschap away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Vitesse 12, De Graafschap 12.
Vitesse score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); De Graafschap have let in 5 there.
De Graafschap score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Vitesse have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Vitesse
- at MVV15 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
- vs Jong AZ20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 47%
- at Dordrecht27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
- vs VVV Venlo4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
De Graafschap
- vs FC OSS14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 42%
- vs MVV20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 53%
- at Roda29 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 23%
- at Jong PSV U217 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.