Emmen
vs
Den Bosch
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Emmen 2–1 Den Bosch
The model makes it 49% Emmen, 26% draw, 25% Den Bosch — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Emmen 1.82, Den Bosch 1.17.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Emmen are 4th on 19 points from 10 games; Den Bosch are 14th on 11 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Emmen are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Dordrecht.
- Den Bosch have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Jong AZ.
- Last 6 meetings: Emmen 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 January 2026, ended Den Bosch 1–1 Emmen.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Emmen vs Den Bosch
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Emmen at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Emmen vs Den Bosch
Emmen
- W3-0away to Dordrecht9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Waalwijk3 October 2026
- W1-0FC OSS26 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Eindhoven18 September 2026
- L1-2De Graafschap11 September 2026
Den Bosch
- W1-0away to Jong AZ9 October 2026
- D1-1Dordrecht3 October 2026
- L0-1away to De Graafschap27 September 2026
- W2-1Helmond Sport18 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Volendam13 September 2026
What these results say
- Emmen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Den Bosch conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Den Bosch had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Emmen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 19 |
| 14 | Den Bosch | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Emmen vs Den Bosch
- 30 January 2026Den Bosch 1–1 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 29 August 2025Emmen 3–1 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 20 December 2024Emmen 0–3 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 20 September 2024Den Bosch 1–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 2 August 2024Emmen 1–0 Den BoschFriendlies Clubs
- 3 May 2024Den Bosch 1–2 EmmenEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Emmen and Den Bosch
Emmen
GoalsAssists
- F. Quispel71
- J. Cooper63
Den Bosch
GoalsAssists
- S. Karlsson Grach40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Emmen carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.23 for Den Bosch. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Emmen and 1.17 for Den Bosch. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Emmen rate 0.62 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Den Bosch rate 0.52 and 1.80.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Emmen a 1.5% chance of the title and Den Bosch 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Emmen the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Emmen against 1.17 for Den Bosch. Emmen's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.8 for Den Bosch.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Emmen at home · Den Bosch away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Emmen 10, Den Bosch 10.
Emmen score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Den Bosch have let in 3 there.
Den Bosch score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Emmen have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Emmen
- vs MVV8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 56%
- at NAC Breda14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 19%
- at Jong Utrecht20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 33%
Den Bosch
- vs Jong Utrecht7 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
- at Waalwijk14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
- vs VVV Venlo20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.