Helmond Sport
vs
FC Eindhoven
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Helmond Sport 2–1 FC Eindhoven
The model makes it 40% Helmond Sport, 28% draw, 32% FC Eindhoven — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Helmond Sport 1.49, FC Eindhoven 1.26.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Helmond Sport are 17th on 9 points from 10 games; FC Eindhoven are 15th on 11 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Helmond Sport are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to FC OSS.
- FC Eindhoven are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Almere City FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Helmond Sport 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 April 2026, ended FC Eindhoven 1–0 Helmond Sport.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Helmond Sport at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
- L1-3away to FC OSS9 October 2026
- D2-2Heracles2 October 2026
- L0-2away to MVV26 September 2026
- L1-2away to Den Bosch18 September 2026
- W3-1Jong PSV U2111 September 2026
FC Eindhoven
- L0-3away to Almere City FC9 October 2026
- D2-2De Graafschap3 October 2026
- L2-4away to NAC Breda26 September 2026
- W3-1Emmen18 September 2026
- W2-1Dordrecht11 September 2026
What these results say
- Helmond Sport conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Helmond Sport failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Helmond Sport scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Eindhoven conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Eindhoven had three goals or more.
- FC Eindhoven scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Helmond Sport | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | FC Eindhoven | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven
- 24 April 2026FC Eindhoven 1–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 26 September 2025Helmond Sport 1–0 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 28 March 2025FC Eindhoven 2–2 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 22 November 2024Helmond Sport 3–4 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 3 May 2024Helmond Sport 2–0 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 20 October 2023FC Eindhoven 1–2 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Helmond Sport carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.25 for FC Eindhoven. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Helmond Sport and 1.26 for FC Eindhoven. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Helmond Sport rate 0.48 in attack and 1.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Eindhoven rate 0.57 and 1.91.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Eindhoven, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Helmond Sport a 0% chance of the title and FC Eindhoven 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Helmond Sport the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Helmond Sport against 1.26 for FC Eindhoven. Helmond Sport's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.91 for FC Eindhoven.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Helmond Sport at home · FC Eindhoven away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Helmond Sport 10, FC Eindhoven 10.
FC Eindhoven score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Helmond Sport have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Helmond Sport
- vs FC Volendam6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
- at Almere City FC14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 15%
- vs Dordrecht20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 48%
FC Eindhoven
- vs Jong Ajax6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 51%
- at VVV Venlo14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 20%
- vs Waalwijk21 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.