Waalwijk
vs
Almere City FC
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Waalwijk 2–1 Almere City FC
The model makes it 37% Waalwijk, 28% draw, 35% Almere City FC — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Waalwijk 1.40, Almere City FC 1.35.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Waalwijk and Almere City FC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Waalwijk are 9th on 14 points from 10 games; Almere City FC are 2nd on 22 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Waalwijk are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Heracles.
- Almere City FC have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to FC Eindhoven.
- Last 6 meetings: Waalwijk 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 March 2026, ended Almere City FC 2–2 Waalwijk.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Waalwijk vs Almere City FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Waalwijk at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Waalwijk vs Almere City FC
Waalwijk
- L0-3away to Heracles9 October 2026
- D1-1Emmen3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Roda26 September 2026
- W6-1MVV18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Jong Ajax11 September 2026
Almere City FC
- W3-0FC Eindhoven9 October 2026
- W1-0FC Volendam3 October 2026
- L2-3away to Dordrecht25 September 2026
- W1-0Heracles18 September 2026
- W4-0away to MVV11 September 2026
What these results say
- Waalwijk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Almere City FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Almere City FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Almere City FC kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Waalwijk | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 14 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Waalwijk vs Almere City FC
- 17 March 2026Almere City FC 2–2 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 30 August 2025Waalwijk 2–0 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
- 2 February 2025Almere City FC 1–4 WaalwijkEredivisie
- 3 November 2024Waalwijk 2–0 Almere City FCEredivisie
- 3 August 2024Almere City FC 1–0 WaalwijkFriendlies Clubs
- 4 April 2024Waalwijk 0–0 Almere City FCEredivisie
Leading scorers: Waalwijk and Almere City FC
Waalwijk
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Almere City FC
GoalsAssists
- F. Druijf63
- E. Poku43
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Waalwijk carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.52 for Almere City FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Waalwijk and 1.35 for Almere City FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Waalwijk rate 0.64 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Almere City FC rate 0.69 and 1.34.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Almere City FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Waalwijk a 1.7% chance of the title and Almere City FC 30%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Waalwijk the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Waalwijk against 1.35 for Almere City FC. Waalwijk's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.34 for Almere City FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Waalwijk at home · Almere City FC away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Waalwijk 10, Almere City FC 10.
Waalwijk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Almere City FC have let in 1 there.
Almere City FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Waalwijk have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Waalwijk
- at FC OSS6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 33%
- vs Den Bosch14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 53%
- at FC Eindhoven21 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 36%
Almere City FC
- at Jong AZ6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 41%
- vs Helmond Sport14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 62%
- vs NAC Breda20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.