FC Volendam
vs
De Graafschap
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: FC Volendam 2–0 De Graafschap
The model makes it 58% FC Volendam, 24% draw, 18% De Graafschap — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: FC Volendam 1.97, De Graafschap 0.87.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to FC Volendam: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- FC Volendam are 8th on 15 points from 10 games; De Graafschap are 16th on 11 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- FC Volendam have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Vitesse.
- De Graafschap are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Jong Utrecht.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Volendam 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 December 2024, ended FC Volendam 2–1 De Graafschap.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Volendam vs De Graafschap
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Volendam at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Volendam vs De Graafschap
FC Volendam
- W2-0Vitesse9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Almere City FC3 October 2026
- W3-2VVV Venlo26 September 2026
- L1-4away to Jong AZ18 September 2026
- W2-0Den Bosch13 September 2026
De Graafschap
- W2-1Jong Utrecht9 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Eindhoven3 October 2026
- W1-0Den Bosch27 September 2026
- L1-2NAC Breda20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Emmen11 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Volendam scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- De Graafschap scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- De Graafschap conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for De Graafschap had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC Volendam | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 15 |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Volendam vs De Graafschap
- 22 December 2024FC Volendam 2–1 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 11 August 2024De Graafschap 4–3 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 8 April 2022FC Volendam 3–1 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 10 September 2021De Graafschap 0–3 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 24 January 2021FC Volendam 1–4 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 7 November 2020De Graafschap 2–5 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: FC Volendam and De Graafschap
FC Volendam
GoalsAssists
- H. Veerman102
- R. Niemeijer42
De Graafschap
GoalsAssists
- J. Kania50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Volendam carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.26 for De Graafschap. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for FC Volendam and 0.87 for De Graafschap. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Volendam rate 0.65 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; De Graafschap rate 0.57 and 1.86.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Volendam a 10.2% chance of the title and De Graafschap 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Volendam the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for FC Volendam against 0.87 for De Graafschap. FC Volendam's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.86 for De Graafschap.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Volendam at home · De Graafschap away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: FC Volendam 10, De Graafschap 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Volendam
- at Helmond Sport6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
- at Roda14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
- vs Jong Ajax20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 64%
De Graafschap
- at Vitesse8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
- vs FC OSS14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 42%
- vs MVV20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.