Cambuur
vs
PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Cambuur 1–2 PSV Eindhoven
The model makes it 20% Cambuur, 19% draw, 61% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 5.00, 5.26 and 1.64. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Cambuur 1.55, PSV Eindhoven 2.96.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: PSV Eindhoven are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Cambuur's rating is built from 10 Eredivisie matches and PSV Eindhoven's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.
Key facts
- Cambuur are 10th on 12 points from 10 games; PSV Eindhoven are 3rd on 19 points from 9 games — Eredivisie.
- Cambuur are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 6-1 win away to Willem II.
- PSV Eindhoven have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to ADO Den Haag.
- Last 6 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 March 2023, ended PSV Eindhoven 5–2 Cambuur.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PSV Eindhoven at 61% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven
Cambuur
Eredivisie
- W6-1away to Willem II24 October 2026
- D2-2AZ Alkmaar18 October 2026
- W1-0away to PEC Zwolle11 October 2026
- D1-1away to ADO Den Haag19 September 2026
- W3-0NEC Nijmegen12 September 2026
PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie
- L1-2away to ADO Den Haag17 October 2026
- W2-0Heerenveen9 October 2026
- L2-3away to Twente20 September 2026
- W4-1Sparta Rotterdam13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Ajax5 September 2026
What these results say
- Cambuur went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Cambuur scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PSV Eindhoven had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 12 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | +15 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven
- 12 March 2023PSV Eindhoven 5–2 CambuurEredivisie
- 1 October 2022Cambuur 3–0 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 23 April 2022Cambuur 1–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 21 August 2021PSV Eindhoven 4–1 CambuurEredivisie
- 1 May 2016PSV Eindhoven 6–2 CambuurEredivisie
- 12 September 2015Cambuur 0–6 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
Leading scorers: Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven
Cambuur
GoalsAssists
- I. Hamache52
- N. Binder52
- R. El Arguioui51
PSV Eindhoven
GoalsAssists
- G. Til51
- S. Mijnans51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cambuur carry a model rating of 6.65 against 7.08 for PSV Eindhoven. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Cambuur and 2.96 for PSV Eindhoven. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cambuur rate 0.91 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PSV Eindhoven rate 1.44 and 0.92.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cambuur a 0% chance of the title and PSV Eindhoven 34.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PSV Eindhoven the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Cambuur against 2.96 for PSV Eindhoven. Cambuur's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.44/0.92 for PSV Eindhoven.
How the model reaches 61% for PSV Eindhoven to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for PSV Eindhoven to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Cambuur's ratings add 13 points and PSV Eindhoven's ratings add 17 points, which lands on the published 61%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Cambuur's ratings44%+13
- PSV Eindhoven's ratings61%+17
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cambuur at home · PSV Eindhoven away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Cambuur 10, PSV Eindhoven 9.
Cambuur score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); PSV Eindhoven have let in 3 there.
PSV Eindhoven score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Cambuur have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Cambuur
- at Utrecht21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 31%
- vs Sparta Rotterdam28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 53%
- at Heerenveen6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 25%
- at Ajax13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 15%
PSV Eindhoven
- at NEC Nijmegen21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 53%
- at Real Madrid24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.