Podbrezová
vs
Ružomberok
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Podbrezová 2–0 Ružomberok
The model makes it 57% Podbrezová, 24% draw, 19% Ružomberok — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Podbrezová 2.00, Ružomberok 0.92.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to Podbrezová: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Podbrezová's rating is built from 44 Slovak Super Liga matches and Ružomberok's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Podbrezová are 5th on 17 points from 12 games; Ružomberok are 10th on 9 points from 12 games — Super Liga.
- Podbrezová have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Zemplín Michalovce.
- Ružomberok have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Dunajska Streda.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Ružomberok 1–4 Podbrezová.
More Slovak Super Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Podbrezová vs Ružomberok
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Podbrezová at 57% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Podbrezová vs Ružomberok
Podbrezová
Super Liga
- W4-1away to Zemplín Michalovce24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Dukla Banská Bystrica18 October 2026
- L1-3Spartak Trnava11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Skalica20 September 2026
- D1-1Komárno13 September 2026
Ružomberok
Super Liga
- L0-5away to Dunajska Streda24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Komárno17 October 2026
- D2-2Žilina11 October 2026
- L0-2away to FK Košice19 September 2026
- W3-0Zemplín Michalovce12 September 2026
What these results say
- Podbrezová scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Podbrezová conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Podbrezová | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 17 |
| 10 | Ružomberok | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Podbrezová vs Ružomberok
- 8 August 2026Ružomberok 1–4 PodbrezováSuper Liga
- 14 February 2026Podbrezová 5–0 RužomberokSuper Liga
- 28 September 2025Ružomberok 1–0 PodbrezováSuper Liga
- 14 December 2024Podbrezová 2–0 RužomberokSuper Liga
- 15 September 2024Ružomberok 1–0 PodbrezováSuper Liga
- 27 April 2024Ružomberok 3–2 PodbrezováSuper Liga
Leading scorers: Podbrezová and Ružomberok
Podbrezová
GoalsAssists
- M. Chrien10
Ružomberok
GoalsAssists
- D. Kostka10
- A. Selecký10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Podbrezová carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.1 for Ružomberok. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Podbrezová and 0.92 for Ružomberok. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Podbrezová rate 0.63 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ružomberok rate 0.43 and 1.95.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Podbrezová the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Podbrezová against 0.92 for Ružomberok. Podbrezová's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.95 for Ružomberok.
How the model reaches 57% for Podbrezová to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Podbrezová to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Podbrezová's ratings take away 25 points and Ružomberok's ratings add 38 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Podbrezová's ratings19%−25
- Ružomberok's ratings57%+38
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Podbrezová at home · Ružomberok away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Podbrezová 12, Ružomberok 12.
Podbrezová score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Ružomberok have let in 7 there.
Ružomberok score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Podbrezová have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Podbrezová
- at AS Trencin21 Nov · Super Ligawin 38%
- vs Dunajska Streda28 Nov · Super Ligawin 22%
- at FK Košice5 Dec · Super Ligawin 29%
- vs Žilina12 Dec · Super Ligawin 40%
Ružomberok
- vs Slovan Bratislava21 Nov · Super Ligawin 18%
- at Dukla Banská Bystrica28 Nov · Super Ligawin 23%
- vs AS Trencin5 Dec · Super Ligawin 40%
- at Spartak Trnava12 Dec · Super Ligawin 12%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.