Regular Season - 13 · 30 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Roda vs Jong AZ Eerste Divisie prediction

Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade

Our model says: Roda 1–0 Jong AZ

The model makes it 44% Roda, 29% draw, 27% Jong AZ — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Roda 1.37, Jong AZ 0.95.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Key facts

  • Roda are 6th on 16 points from 10 games; Jong AZ are 11th on 13 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • Roda have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Jong PSV U21.
  • Jong AZ have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Den Bosch.
  • Last 6 meetings: Jong AZ 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 April 2026, ended Jong AZ 2–0 Roda.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Roda vs Jong AZ

46%
Both teams to score
41%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Roda win Draw Jong AZ win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–013%
  3. 0–010%
  4. 2–09%
  5. 2–19%
  6. 0–19%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Roda first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 31%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Roda at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Roda vs Jong AZ

Roda

  • D1-1Jong PSV U219 October 2026
  • L0-2away to VVV Venlo4 October 2026
  • W2-0Waalwijk26 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Jong Ajax18 September 2026
  • W1-0Vitesse12 September 2026

Jong AZ

  • L0-1Den Bosch9 October 2026
  • W4-1FC Volendam18 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Jong PSV U2114 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Heracles11 September 2026
  • W6-3away to Dordrecht5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Roda had two goals or fewer.
  • Jong AZ conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Jong AZ scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Jong AZ.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Roda10442108+216
11Jong AZ104152218+413

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Roda vs Jong AZ

  • 24 April 2026Jong AZ 2–0 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 5 December 2025Roda 2–3 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 7 February 2025Roda 3–3 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 12 August 2024Jong AZ 6–1 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 5 February 2024Jong AZ 1–0 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 6 October 2023Roda 3–1 Jong AZEerste Divisie

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Roda carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.3 for Jong AZ. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Roda and 0.95 for Jong AZ. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Roda rate 0.44 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jong AZ rate 0.63 and 1.92.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Roda a 0.5% chance of the title and Jong AZ 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Roda the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Roda against 0.95 for Jong AZ. Roda's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.92 for Jong AZ.

Season stats

RodaJong AZ
10Matches10
4W 4D 2LRecord4W 1D 5L
10 1.0 per gameGoals scored22 2.2 per game
8 0.8 per gameGoals conceded18 1.8 per game
4 of 10Clean sheets0 of 10
3 of 10Failed to score2 of 10
1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2
15 1.5 per gameYellow cards12 1.2 per game
3-4-2-1 7×Usual shape4-2-3-1 5×

Roda at home · Jong AZ away

5Played5
3W 2D 0LRecord2W 1D 2L
8–4Goals for – against15–12
2 of 5Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Roda 10, Jong AZ 10.

Roda scored 213212
Jong AZ conceded 215343

Roda score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Jong AZ have let in 5 there.

Jong AZ scored 252247
Roda conceded 101112

Jong AZ score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Roda have let in 2 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Roda

  • at Heracles6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
  • vs FC Volendam14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
  • at FC OSS20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 29%

Jong AZ

  • vs Almere City FC6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
  • at Vitesse20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 25%
  • at Jong Ajax23 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.