Emmen
vs
MVV
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Emmen 2–0 MVV
The model makes it 59% Emmen, 23% draw, 18% MVV — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Emmen 2.09, MVV 0.91.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to Emmen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Emmen's rating is built from 50 Eerste Divisie matches and MVV's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Emmen are 3rd on 25 points from 12 games; MVV are 10th on 17 points from 12 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Emmen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Vitesse.
- MVV are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Den Bosch.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Emmen 2–1 MVV.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Emmen vs MVV
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Emmen at 59% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Emmen vs MVV
Emmen
Eerste Divisie
- W2-0away to Vitesse23 October 2026
- W2-1Almere City FC17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Dordrecht9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Waalwijk3 October 2026
- W1-0FC OSS26 September 2026
MVV
Eerste Divisie
- D2-2away to Den Bosch23 October 2026
- L1-5Heracles18 October 2026
- L0-1away to NAC Breda9 October 2026
- L1-4away to FC OSS3 October 2026
- W2-0Helmond Sport26 September 2026
What these results say
- Emmen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Emmen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Emmen won 4 of these 5 matches.
- MVV failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- MVV scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- MVV conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Emmen | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 25 |
| 10 | MVV | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Emmen vs MVV
- 6 April 2026Emmen 2–1 MVVEerste Divisie
- 26 September 2025MVV 1–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 28 March 2025MVV 1–2 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 4 October 2024Emmen 1–1 MVVEerste Divisie
- 12 April 2024Emmen 1–3 MVVEerste Divisie
- 6 November 2023MVV 1–1 EmmenEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Emmen and MVV
Emmen
GoalsAssists
- J. Cooper93
- F. Quispel72
MVV
GoalsAssists
- O. Dumont51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Emmen carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.08 for MVV. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.09 goals for Emmen and 0.91 for MVV. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Emmen rate 0.62 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; MVV rate 0.44 and 2.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Emmen a 2% chance of the title and MVV 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Emmen the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Emmen against 0.91 for MVV. Emmen's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/2.07 for MVV.
How the model reaches 59% for Emmen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Emmen to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Emmen's ratings take away 24 points and MVV's ratings add 39 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Emmen's ratings20%−24
- MVV's ratings59%+39
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Emmen at home · MVV away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Emmen 12, MVV 12.
Emmen score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); MVV have let in 5 there.
MVV score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Emmen have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Emmen
- at NAC Breda14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 28%
- at Jong Utrecht20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 38%
- vs Helmond Sport28 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 55%
- at Heracles4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 15%
MVV
- vs Vitesse15 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
- at De Graafschap20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 21%
- vs Jong PSV U2127 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
- vs Dordrecht4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.