VVV Venlo
vs
Jong PSV U21
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: VVV Venlo 2–1 Jong PSV U21
The model makes it 55% VVV Venlo, 24% draw, 21% Jong PSV U21 — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: VVV Venlo 1.98, Jong PSV U21 1.03.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,455 settled matches.
Edge to VVV Venlo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. VVV Venlo's rating is built from 49 Eerste Divisie matches and Jong PSV U21's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- VVV Venlo are 3rd on 22 points from 11 games; Jong PSV U21 are 13th on 13 points from 11 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- VVV Venlo are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-4 draw at home to Jong AZ.
- Jong PSV U21 have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Dordrecht.
- Last 6 meetings: Jong PSV U21 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Jong PSV U21 1–0 VVV Venlo.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VVV Venlo at 55% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 1,093 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21
VVV Venlo
Eerste Divisie
- D4-4Jong AZ16 October 2026
- W3-0away to Jong Ajax9 October 2026
- W2-0Roda4 October 2026
- L2-3away to FC Volendam26 September 2026
- W3-1away to Jong Utrecht18 September 2026
Jong PSV U21
Eerste Divisie
- L0-1Dordrecht19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Roda9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Vitesse19 September 2026
- D1-1Jong AZ14 September 2026
- L1-3away to Helmond Sport11 September 2026
What these results say
- VVV Venlo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for VVV Venlo had three goals or more.
- Jong PSV U21 did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Jong PSV U21 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jong PSV U21 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 18 | +12 | 22 |
| 13 | Jong PSV U21 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21
- 6 April 2026Jong PSV U21 1–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 15 August 2025VVV Venlo 0–2 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 27 January 2025Jong PSV U21 1–2 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 20 September 2024VVV Venlo 0–2 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 2 February 2024VVV Venlo 3–2 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 22 September 2023Jong PSV U21 0–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21
VVV Venlo
GoalsAssists
- L. Schmidt51
Jong PSV U21
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
VVV Venlo carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.24 for Jong PSV U21. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for VVV Venlo and 1.03 for Jong PSV U21. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VVV Venlo rate 0.70 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jong PSV U21 rate 0.51 and 1.74.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VVV Venlo a 2.6% chance of the title and Jong PSV U21 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VVV Venlo the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for VVV Venlo against 1.03 for Jong PSV U21. VVV Venlo's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.74 for Jong PSV U21.
How the model reaches 55% for VVV Venlo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for VVV Venlo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, VVV Venlo's ratings take away 21 points and Jong PSV U21's ratings add 32 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- VVV Venlo's ratings23%−21
- Jong PSV U21's ratings55%+32
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
VVV Venlo at home · Jong PSV U21 away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: VVV Venlo 11, Jong PSV U21 11.
Jong PSV U21 score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); VVV Venlo have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
VVV Venlo
- vs FC Eindhoven14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 56%
- at Den Bosch20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 38%
- vs Waalwijk27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 47%
Jong PSV U21
- at Heracles20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 12%
- vs Jong Utrecht23 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
- at MVV27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.