Den Bosch
vs
Jong Utrecht
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Den Bosch 2–1 Jong Utrecht
The model makes it 47% Den Bosch, 26% draw, 27% Jong Utrecht — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Den Bosch 1.77, Jong Utrecht 1.19.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,126 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Den Bosch's rating is built from 52 Eerste Divisie matches and Jong Utrecht's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Den Bosch are 13th on 15 points from 12 games; Jong Utrecht are bottom on 7 points from 12 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Den Bosch are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to MVV.
- Jong Utrecht are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-6 defeat away to FC Volendam.
- Last 6 meetings: Den Bosch 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 20 April 2026, ended Den Bosch 1–1 Jong Utrecht.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Den Bosch at 47% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht
Den Bosch
Eerste Divisie
- D2-2MVV23 October 2026
- W2-1FC OSS16 October 2026
- W1-0away to Jong AZ9 October 2026
- D1-1Dordrecht3 October 2026
- L0-1away to De Graafschap27 September 2026
Jong Utrecht
Eerste Divisie
- L2-6away to FC Volendam23 October 2026
- L1-2Roda19 October 2026
- L1-2away to De Graafschap9 October 2026
- L1-3VVV Venlo18 September 2026
- W6-1Jong Ajax14 September 2026
What these results say
- Den Bosch scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Den Bosch conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jong Utrecht scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jong Utrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Jong Utrecht had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Den Bosch | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 15 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht
- 20 April 2026Den Bosch 1–1 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 24 November 2025Jong Utrecht 3–2 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 27 January 2025Den Bosch 2–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 16 September 2024Jong Utrecht 0–3 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 15 April 2024Jong Utrecht 0–2 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 4 November 2023Den Bosch 1–1 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht
Den Bosch
GoalsAssists
- S. Karlsson Grach60
Jong Utrecht
GoalsAssists
- E. C. Owen60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Den Bosch carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.18 for Jong Utrecht. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Den Bosch and 1.19 for Jong Utrecht. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Den Bosch rate 0.52 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jong Utrecht rate 0.55 and 2.09.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Den Bosch the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Den Bosch against 1.19 for Jong Utrecht. Den Bosch's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/2.09 for Jong Utrecht.
How the model reaches 47% for Den Bosch to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Den Bosch to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Den Bosch's ratings take away 28 points and Jong Utrecht's ratings add 31 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Den Bosch's ratings16%−28
- Jong Utrecht's ratings47%+31
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Den Bosch at home · Jong Utrecht away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Den Bosch 12, Jong Utrecht 12.
Den Bosch score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Jong Utrecht have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Den Bosch
- at Waalwijk14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
- vs VVV Venlo20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
- at NAC Breda27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 23%
- vs Jong Ajax4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 48%
Jong Utrecht
- vs Emmen20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
- at Jong PSV U2123 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
- vs Almere City FC27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
- at Helmond Sport4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.