FC OSS
vs
Waalwijk
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: FC OSS 1–0 Waalwijk
The model makes it 38% FC OSS, 28% draw, 34% Waalwijk — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC OSS 1.37, Waalwijk 1.26.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 940 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. FC OSS's rating is built from 49 Eerste Divisie matches and Waalwijk's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC OSS are 14th on 12 points from 11 games; Waalwijk are 10th on 15 points from 11 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- FC OSS have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Den Bosch.
- Waalwijk are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to FC Volendam.
- Last 6 meetings: Waalwijk 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 30 January 2026, ended Waalwijk 2–0 FC OSS.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC OSS vs Waalwijk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC OSS at 38% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 3,435 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC OSS vs Waalwijk
FC OSS
Eerste Divisie
- L1-2away to Den Bosch16 October 2026
- W3-1Helmond Sport9 October 2026
- W4-1MVV3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Emmen26 September 2026
- W3-0Dordrecht18 September 2026
Waalwijk
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1FC Volendam18 October 2026
- L0-3away to Heracles9 October 2026
- D1-1Emmen3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Roda26 September 2026
- W6-1MVV18 September 2026
What these results say
- FC OSS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC OSS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC OSS had three goals or more.
- Waalwijk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Waalwijk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | FC OSS | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Waalwijk | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC OSS vs Waalwijk
- 30 January 2026Waalwijk 2–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 21 November 2025FC OSS 0–0 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 2 July 2022Waalwijk 5–3 FC OSSFriendlies Clubs
- 13 January 2019FC OSS 1–2 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 12 October 2018Waalwijk 0–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 6 April 2018FC OSS 3–1 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: FC OSS and Waalwijk
FC OSS
GoalsAssists
- M. Hinoke50
- F. Nsingi42
Waalwijk
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC OSS carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.38 for Waalwijk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for FC OSS and 1.26 for Waalwijk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC OSS rate 0.53 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Waalwijk rate 0.62 and 1.59.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Waalwijk, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC OSS a 0% chance of the title and Waalwijk 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC OSS the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for FC OSS against 1.26 for Waalwijk. FC OSS's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.59 for Waalwijk.
How the model reaches 38% for FC OSS to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC OSS to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, FC OSS's ratings take away 27 points and Waalwijk's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- FC OSS's ratings17%−27
- Waalwijk's ratings38%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC OSS at home · Waalwijk away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: FC OSS 11, Waalwijk 11.
FC OSS score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Waalwijk have let in 2 there.
Waalwijk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); FC OSS have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC OSS
- at De Graafschap14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
- vs Roda20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
- at Jong AZ27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
Waalwijk
- vs Den Bosch14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 52%
- at FC Eindhoven21 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 36%
- at VVV Venlo27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.