Virtus Entella
vs
Modena
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Virtus Entella 0–1 Modena
The model makes it 33% Virtus Entella, 30% draw, 37% Modena — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Virtus Entella 1.11, Modena 1.21.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
Edge to Modena: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Virtus Entella's rating is built from 46 Serie B matches and Modena's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 857 matches.
Key facts
- Virtus Entella are 11th on 9 points from 8 games; Modena are 3rd on 16 points from 8 games — Serie B.
- Virtus Entella have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Mantova.
- Modena have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Cesena.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 March 2026, ended Virtus Entella 2–1 Modena.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Virtus Entella vs Modena
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Modena at 37% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Virtus Entella vs Modena
Virtus Entella
Serie B
- L0-1Mantova24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Padova17 October 2026
- D1-1Juve Stabia10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Cremonese19 September 2026
- W4-1away to Pisa11 September 2026
Modena
Serie B
- W3-0Cesena24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Carrarese17 October 2026
- W3-2Hellas Verona11 October 2026
- W2-1Empoli20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sudtirol12 September 2026
What these results say
- Virtus Entella conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Modena scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Modena conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Modena had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Virtus Entella | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 9 |
| 3 | Modena | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Virtus Entella vs Modena
- 3 March 2026Virtus Entella 2–1 ModenaSerie B
- 5 October 2025Modena 2–0 Virtus EntellaSerie B
- 30 January 2022Virtus Entella 0–2 ModenaSerie C - Girone B
- 25 September 2021Modena 1–2 Virtus EntellaSerie C - Girone B
Leading scorers: Virtus Entella and Modena
Virtus Entella
GoalsAssists
- Bernat Guiu22
Modena
GoalsAssists
- G. Caso31
- A. Belotti30
- G. Ambrosino22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Virtus Entella carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.65 for Modena. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Virtus Entella and 1.21 for Modena. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Virtus Entella rate 0.63 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Modena rate 0.79 and 1.18.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Virtus Entella a 0.1% chance of the title and Modena 7.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Modena the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Virtus Entella against 1.21 for Modena. Virtus Entella's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.18 for Modena.
How the model reaches 37% for Modena to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Modena to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Virtus Entella's ratings add 18 points and Modena's ratings take away 11 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Virtus Entella's ratings48%+18
- Modena's ratings37%−11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Virtus Entella at home · Modena away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Virtus EntellaModena
Virtus Entella are 11th after 8 Serie B matches (between 9th and 19th so far); Modena are 3rd after 8 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Virtus Entella 8, Modena 8.
Modena score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Virtus Entella have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Virtus Entella
- at Carrarese21 Nov · Serie Bwin 28%
- vs Hellas Verona24 Nov · Serie Bwin 39%
- at Ascoli28 Nov · Serie Bwin 18%
Modena
- vs Juve Stabia21 Nov · Serie Bwin 45%
- at Pisa24 Nov · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Padova28 Nov · Serie Bwin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.